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Technology Stocks : Glenayre Technologies(GEMS)- a pure cellular PCS play?
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To: Machaon who wrote (2113)10/20/1997 7:54:00 PM
From: Thomas C. White   of 3431
 
A few quick comments:

1. International paging infrastructure business has always been a major focus for GEMS -- and pretty much the only time it hasn't been on a relative basis was the 1995 "bubble" due to the FCC's rules forcing North American paging operators to vastly accellerate deployment. So now it appears that relative to the "bubble" GEMS focus is now increasing towards international. Keep in mind that most GEMS business with regular customers is "routine" steady shipments. Also not all customers permit GEMS to announce.

2. Two way paging (NPCS) has not proven itself to be very attractive for the large international operators, at least not yet. There are many problems. One major problem is that operators in developing countries usually lease or rent the pagers to their customers. They would probably have to absorb losses if they suddenly began offering a totally new pager as customers would demand trade-ins. One-way alphanumeric paging has occupied a well-defined niche on the price-performance curve in developing countries; due to generally very high prices for cellular and PCS service, there is not a sense that paging "competes" with other technologies. So there is little impetus to offer NPCS vs. regular paging.

3. My thinking is that GEMS results will not depart too far from their previous coaching to analysts. Lately they have tended to be much more careful with this due to some enormous gaps both upside and downside on earnings reports in the past two years.
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