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Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing

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To: JSB who wrote (65076)	9/23/2008 11:07:54 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (1) of 118717

The commodities could make a nice turn. Nat gas has been quietly sneeking up the past few days as the national gaze has been on the financial crisis. Honestly, I can't figure out where it's at with the financials all getting scooped up this week. Cramer is telling everyone to sit in cash so they don't lose any money. Where was he 2 weeks ago before the Lehman debacle? Oil ran it's course back to $90 and it could certainly do it again. However, with nat gas starting to make a comeback going into the end of the season, the utility companies will mark up the price so they can rip off consumers this winter. I locked in my nat gas rates for the winter yesterday at $1.07 a therm. I don't see a lot of correlation between gas prices and energy stocks, especially the drillers. RIG was up big tonite after Congress lifted the drilling moratorium. How can gas prices get much lower at $2.60 with everyone in the South paying over $4 a gallon? Maybe a a position in a refiner would give some protection against lower oil prices. It strikes me that October is the pivot month for real consumer demand going into the fall. Another good thing for commodities is that China has lowered interest rates for the first time in 6 years. Maybe they are ready to start buying some coal before they run out of energy this winter too. The only 2 weak industrial sectors are autos and housing. Everything within the commodity structure looks very stable. I don't feel nearly as frantic about the high valuations of these companies like they were back in July.

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