Political Insiders Poll
Saturday, Sept. 20, 2008
by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell
nationaljournal.com
Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to win the White House in November?
Democrats (86 votes)
September 2008
AVERAGE SCORE: 6.3
Low (0-3): 0%
Moderate (4-6): 55%
High (7-10): 45%
June 2008
AVERAGE SCORE: 7.0
Low (0-3): 0%
Moderate (4-6): 35%
High (7-10): 65%
Moderate
4. "Palin was a perfect pick to reintroduce McCain. And Democrats bit on getting into a debate about her experience."
5. "War and Palin and the economy aside, this is still an evenly divided country with the popular vote slightly favoring the Democrats and the electoral map slightly favoring the Republicans."
5. "One has to admire a political party that can take what was once perceived as 'certain victory' and turn it into a horse race, having nominated the jockey with little track experience."
5. "And hanging by a thread."
5. "Obama must get on the offense. The McCain-Palin vulnerabilities grow by the day, but to this point they are getting away with murder, which may actually be the only commandment they haven't broken."
5. "Is Obama Mike Dukakis, or is he Bill Clinton?"
6. "The failure to get on a consistent economic message is hurting Sen. Obama. The Obama campaign is wasting too much time and money on messages about which middle-class swing voters just don't care."
6. "The battleground states will become even more critical and heated in the weeks to come. And Obama's dollar and organizational advantage should start to show itself."
6. "With all that Bush has left, there is no reason that the Democrats should not win. But Obama is not connecting with ordinary voters."
6. "The polls will stabilize, McCain's bounce will fade, and Obama will once again show that he can weather a campaign storm."
6. "Would have been '8,' except for Palin. Rats!"
6. "Frankly, the only reason I give Obama a '6' is because Bush has been such a disaster that the American public might vote for Obama by default."
6. "What was once an '8' has become a '6.' Democrats keep saying, with faux assurance, that 'Obama is still closing the sale,' but at what point do we say that 51 percent of Americans may not 'close the sale'?"
6. "Obama should win if he can survive the first debate."
6. "The Obama-Biden campaign has lost its focus, lost its energy, and lost its footing. Maybe the enormity of the economic realities will snap it back, but I'm doubtful."
High
7. "The next two weeks are a crucial period for McCain, as he needs to solidify his convention gains. This is when McCain might be hurt for not laying down a positive foundation before his campaign went negative."
7. " 'Race' remains the elephant in the room."
7. "The financial meltdown tilts this one to the Democrats' 'change' message."
7. "Not so much because of Barack Obama, but because of the lousy Republican record."
7. "No more lipsticks or pigs. Sens. Obama and Biden must stick to the economy, stupid!"
7. "Obama's economic message is still a winner, if he will focus on it."
7. "No more lipsticks or pigs. Sens. Obama and Biden must stick to the economy, stupid!"
7. "The Palin bounce is ending, the economy is tanking, and the Obama campaign is finally hitting McCain hard. To paraphrase John McCain, 'The fundamentals for a Democratic win remain strong.' "
7. "The reason? New voters, lots of them."
8. "Banks failing, mortgage foreclosures the worst since the Great Depression, unemployment up, trade balance out of whack, wars on two fronts and others being threatened, persons without health insurance growing--there is no good reason why this kind of behavior should be rewarded with four more years."
8. "Numbers in various polls show growing confidence in Obama as a leader. All other big issues trending Democratic: Looking good."
Democratic Political Insiders Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, and Jim Zogby.
Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to win the White House in November?
Republicans (90 votes)
September 2008
AVERAGE SCORE: 5.3
Low (0-3): 7%
Moderate (4-6): 77%
High (7-10): 17%
June 2008
AVERAGE SCORE: 6.0
Low (0-3): 2%
Moderate (4-6): 62%
High (7-10): 36%
Low
3. "Hillary Clinton was Obama's ticket to the White House."
3. "Second-guessing and unforced errors are crippling the Obama campaign. They picked the absolute worst time to seize up."
Moderate
4. "Amazingly, McCain has made a clean break from Bush and grabbed the 'change agent, Washington outsider' label from Obama, who, by the way, has reverted to becoming a Mondale-Dukakis-Kerry Democrat."
4. "The conventions clarified for swing voters that Bush is not running and Obama-Biden is too liberal."
4. "The [Republicans'] convention surge has morphed into a more sustained political force. It is neither unstoppable nor inevitable, but the Obama campaign reaction is so far making matters worse."
5. "The playing field still leans toward the Democrats, but the McCain team has outplayed the Obama team over the past two weeks."
5. "Before the selection of Palin, I would have said '8' or '9.' This election has changed dramatically since the end of August."
5. "McCain has succeeded in keeping Obama on defense since the conventions, closing the gap in the polls and making the race a jump ball."
5. "The Obama team is making the Kerry campaign look like a well-oiled machine."
5. "Obama is not wearing well: long-winded and uninspiring. The Republicans are remarkably error-free [of late]. But which electorate is going to show up in November?"
5. "Down from '8.' Palin has made the map much smaller and [Democratic]opportunities much fewer if the GOP intensity holds up."
5. "I think it can go either way. If the election were today, the Republicans would win; unfortunately, it's not today."
5. "The Palin candidacy is appealing to women and even to younger voters in ways not imaginable just a month ago."
5. "Barack Obama should send George Bush a Candygram, because he's the only thing keeping him in the hunt right now. Team Obama looks like a bunch of tourists on the side of the road staring blankly under the hood of the broken-down car."
6. "The anti-Republican environment is still strong. And once the Palin bounce wears off, it will be an uphill battle."
6. "The fundamentals favoring Democrats will likely overcome Obama's emerging weakness as a candidate."
6. "The Sarah Palin pick has affected the atmospherics of enthusiasm in the short term, but the long-term fundamentals of November still favor the Democrats. If Obama ever finds an economic message that goes beyond just blame-mongering, Democrats will have an edge."
6. "McCain can't win because of the Bush debacle, but Obama can lose because he's not making the sale."
6. "Palin may have evened things out, but Obama still has the economy, the war, and the president working for him."
6. "Still too many Republican states in play, and too few Democratic states to offset [them]."
High
7. "Money and message win elections. And Obama still leads in both."
7. "Two weeks ago I would have said '10,' but they have so bungled the last few weeks that now I'm not so sure. They have allowed a 30-year veteran of Washington and a moose-hunting chick from Alaska to steal the 'change' message."
7. "Their voter-registration operation is changing the math on Election Day. And their field operations are far superior to ours, even after the Palin bump in volunteer activity."
7. "Palin adds excitement for the moment, but not the needed votes on November 4. It's between McCain and Obama with a heavy measure of Bush thrown in--tough headwinds for McCain. But the country is not yet sold on Obama, so McCain has a chance if he spells out a compelling vision--not just that he and Palin are 'reformers.' "
GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.
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