David Bensimon believes we are in an era of global prosperity. His call for the SPX to bottom sometime around October 6th, at 1170, was a firm, hard target in his view. He says it is the 50% re-trace of the entire advance from the lows, earlier in the decade. He thinks global stock markets will rise 40-50% over the next 12-18 months. He sees the SPX at 3600 and the Hang Seng at 100K in 2012. He thinks everything is going up in an inflationary/prosperity era. Gold, oil, silver. He thinks oil stays flat at 100.00 into 2009 until rising again.
I'm wondering if he blew this call, totally. Apparently he has been amazingly accurate over the years. He is able to charge gargantuan fees and prices for his work.
While I can't go along with doomsday scenarios like 20 years of global depression, it's very hard to see an era of global prosperity at a time when the developed world is seeing it's banking system rocked with losses, and much of the OECD is menaced by a deflating credit bubble.
Bensimon allowed he had not originally forecasted the lower low in July, after the March low. Once that happened, he became very firm that 1170 SPX would be the low towards 6 OCT. He was adament about this.
I'll give David this: you'd be hard pressed to find anyone that thinks global stocks are headed higher--let alone to new highs--over the next year. The credit crisis drama is a global story. Everyone is scared out of their wits. So, there is no question we are seeing major, multi-year extremes in fear.
G |
