₪ David Pescod's Late Edition 9/22-9/26/08 To receive the Late Edition and be on our daily circulation simply e-mail Debbie at Debbie_lewis@canaccord.com and give your address, phone number and e-mail and we’ll have you on the list tonight. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ David Pescod's Late Edition September 22, 2008
AN INTERVIEW WITH JEFF CHISHOLM, PRESIDENT AND CEO WITH PAN ORIENT ENERGY (As of September 10, 2008)
If you have been in the market for the last week or so, you’ve gone through something the likes of which we just haven’t seen in a generation or three. You probably spent the weekend reading the financial press and came away with the conclusion that the press agrees on only one thing…that we’ve escaped the biggest panic/credit crisis since the Great Depression and the good news is that we’ve come away still alive. Needless to say, there are some baby-boomers that have seen their savings change somewhat, there’s been some folks transfer assets out of the equity market and I suspect there are a few people that have always thought bonds were for whoosies, suddenly asking what the heck a T-Bill is?
However, it looks like the hard steps have been made in the U.S.A. which was the father of this credit crisis, courtesy of the housing bust that was financed so poorly and the question is what next? I’m sure you noticed on the weekend the press told you that we could be in a recession or we might not and for those following the commodity boom, we could see gold at $700 or $1200 and we could see oil at $75 or $125. So there you go!
Meanwhile, Nick Majendie of Canaccord suggests that in the short-term we expect a strong rally from the lows to last several weeks, although longer-term, he wouldn’t be surprised to see a re-test in the first quarter of next year. In the meantime, while our own crystal ball is more than a little cloudy, we figure why not go look at a couple of oil and gas stocks that should/could see some big increases in production in the next while so that if oil is $100 by Christmas of 2009 and these companies just go back to where their stock prices were, one could have had (after an ugly time) maybe some better times…
We are narrowing our picks down to mainly oil stocks, because gas looks like it may be a little iffy here, and we are sticking with jurisdictions in the world that will allow oil and gas companies to make a buck, should they actually find some oil. So none of them are in Alberta, but Saskatchewan, the North Sea, Thailand and Albania are home to our picks that we will do interviews with over the next few weeks. Today, we start with Jeff Chisholm of Pan Orient:
David Pescod: Jeff, is there anything in this experience that you could add to because of your presence in Asia which regards to the current market conditions and what you see in Asia that might make you hopeful that there is an end in sight?
Jeff Chisholm:What could put that in frame and context - what we have been seeing in Thailand over the past two months and the projections of the government going forward over the next two months. They have seen sustained growth somewhere in the range of 6% to 8% over the last year and a half. As we all know there have been some political issues there. Recently the Central Bank/Central Government came out with forecasts of growth just under 6% for the remainder of this year, going into the early part of 2009. We still think that’s pretty significant. I think we are seeing similar things in China, perhaps we aren’t seeing the double-digit growth rates that we had over the last few years, but we are certainly in the high 7, 8 and 9. As far as oil demand, we don’t see a significant fall off in that part of the world from what we are seeing both on the ground and numbers put out by these governments.
D.P: Now you have been based in Southeast Asia for a while; first with Niko and then you were in Jakarta for a while. Anything about Asia that you don’t think most of us in Alberta would be aware of?
J.C: I’ve been over in that part of the world since 1988. The best example I can give you is when they start growing, they grow fast and really the best example for that is Vietnam. The first time I was there was in 1993/1994 and literally it was the only motorized vehicle on the road from the airport to the hotel. Last time I was back in Saigon/Hochiminh City about a year/year and a half ago, probably about 10% were bicycles, the rest were motor scooters and cars. Similar sorts of growth in Jakarta though it was much further ahead in the 1990’s than Vietnam was. But I don’t think people understand that when these countries start growing, with those populations, just how rapidly it happens.
D.P: Let’s put it this way…Looking at the price of oil down the road, we’ve had an enormous correction and a crash in the oil stocks. What do you see down the road?
J.C: Down the road I think that certainly in the big picture sense, this is probably the best thing that could have happened to the U.S. Government in the short-term. The fall in commodity prices has essentially allowed them to avoid an interest rate rise. They have achieved what they would have achieved with an interest rate rise by the fall off in commodity prices and inflation and I think we may get back to normal (whatever normal is going to be) after the election in November. I’d expect December to certainly be out of any bottom that we are going to see at this period of time in the commodities, specifically oil and gold.
D.P: What kind of prices do you see ahead for oil down the road?
J.C: I would qualify any price that I give with regard to oil, with regard to what the U.S. dollar is doing against a basket of currencies. I would say in today’s U.S. dollar terms that if we hovered certainly in between that $90.00 to $110.00 range, that would be expected and I think for 95% of the oil companies out there that would be the sweet spot. We are not killing demand and at the same time we are making a lot of money.
D.P: As far as Pan Orient, you’ve suffered like many others, in that suddenly your stock is going on a two-for-one sale and yet not one bad well? This has not been deserved!
J.C: We are right now in the middle of developing the main part of our main field. We should have some results out within the next seven to ten days (it’s out today and it’s good). All initial indications are very good. Our production is strong – above where it was in Q2 on average. Our price we are receiving for the commodity is very high historically, i.e. within the last year and a half. We have more than enough cash to carry out our current work programs and we are going to have two rigs going for at least the next year to year and a half.
D.P: Now you are expecting some enormous increases in production over the next while.
J.C: We have stated that our exit target for 2008 will be 9000 barrels a day net. If things work out for us, we will achieve that target much sooner than year-end, and that is something that we are extremely confident that we will meet at this time.
D.P: What kind of numbers are you doing today and what would you expect by the end of next year?
J.C: The numbers we are doing right now are somewhat affected by the fact that we are doing multiple wells off the same drill pad and at the time that we are drilling through the main target zone, we cannot have the other wells producing at that time. It’s just simply not safe. I would be quite pleased if we hit that 9000 barrels within the first two weeks of October, perhaps the third week.
D.P: As far as working in Thailand, that seems to be a generous area of the world. A lot of the oil seems to be found at shallow areas and is quite economic to process.
J.C: What is interesting is that if you take a look back over the last two years, the crown jewel in Unocal’s basket of assets were their properties in Thailand. It was their largest individual asset anywhere in the world. That was the main reason they were taken out by Chevon. With that said, a couple of the main growing juniors in Asia have been located in Thailand one of those being a company called Pearl Energy that went from zero to 22,000 barrels over the last year and a half. Ourselves, going from zero up to a gross production rate by the end of next year we plan at 15,000 barrels a day. There has been some gas discovered up in the northeast, apparently quite a large field by some of the other companies like Salamandar Energy out of the U.K. and Coastal Energy that trades on the TSX. So it really has been a place that has had a disproportionate number of smaller companies having great success in that time frame.
D.P: Any discomfort operating in Thailand? Some commentators seem a little bit worried about the generals in Thailand…
J.C: In the grand scheme of things, looking at international assets worldwide, I would see at this point in time, far less political risk in the Asia region than say, anywhere in Africa. There are certain issues to be dealt with in Latin America where there has been a history of nationalization/changing fiscal terms.
We have not seen that (nationalization) in Asia at any point in recent history and I think that with these growing economies, these governments are under the gun to provide growth. Part of that growth is maximizing your domestic production and I think that’s on our side in the big picture.
D.P: Now you are hoping to make a venture into Indonesia and more than a few people worry that Indonesia has a pretty brutal royalty structure.
J.C: What we have seen actually in Indonesia is the old contracts which were called a JOB. The production splits for that were 93.5% to the government and the remainder to the contractor. What we currently have in one of our contracts in Java is a production split of 75/25 for oil and 60/40 for gas. The larger number in favor of the government. If you throw on top of that the cost recovery, 90% of production – i.e. 90% of the production goes to you until your development costs, overhead and everything else is paid off. You run the economics on that, it is clearly in the middle P-50 of what exists in the rest of the world. The other contact that we have onshore Sumatra is an 85/15 split and it would be at the lower end of that P-50.
D.P: And you are quite comfortable with that?
J.C: We are quite comfortable with that, particularly at a reasonable estimate of future commodity prices and the size of the potential prize.
D.P: What are your corporate goals for the next two years?
J.C: As we stated here, at year-end 2008 it’s to get production up to 9000 barrels a day net, hold that up through 2009 and continue exploration drilling and year end appraisal of resources in Thailand to perhaps lift that production higher or at the very least, push that production profile out further and to have significant growth i.e. have at least those kind of production numbers in Thailand, within the next two years in Indonesia.
D.P: If you had to pick one other stock to own other than POE, what would it be?
J.C: Probably the only qualifier I will put on that is that this company’s production is hedged, and right now with the current market conditions with liquidity being very important, with future near-term reserve and production growth, probably Oilexco would be near the top of that list.
D.P: Oh! Well, you made our day with that!!! Now there are a couple of analysts that are following your stock – Warren Verbonac is one of them. What are the analysts saying and what are their targets?
J.C: We are covered by six people. Right now on five of them, the target vary between approximately $15.00 a share to $18.00 and I think we have one that is down in the $12.00 or $13.00 range. I think we have a very active period between now and year-end. We are going to see significant production growth in Thailand; we are going to be drilling our two best exploration prospects before year-end. We are going to be going after at least 22.5 million barrels of near in resources, adjacent to production at Na Sanun East and we are going to have a big test that we are about to pull off in Indonesia around the third week of November that could be a company changer at a very cheap cost of about $1.3 million net to us.
D.P: Thank you very much Jeff. > _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ David Pescod's Late Edition September 23, 2008
Q&A with ABBY BADWI, PRESIDENT AND CEO with BANKERS PETROLEUM (As of September 22, 2008)
As we touch base with some of the oil and gas stories that have been beaten and battered, but still should have big to huge production growth in the coming years, one story that definitely comes to mind is Bankers Petroleum. Abby Badwi who had so much success in Egypt with Rally Energy has now reunited much of the team for their Patos-Marinza project in Albania.
Abby was on a tour talking about Bankers through some of the financial districts in the United States last week when the financial crisis was at its peak. Needless to say, he blames the financial collapse in the US for destroying some of value he had helped create. But it’s time to get caught up with Abby:
David Pescod: Abby, the crisis that’s just been created has been courtesy of the financial industry – the housing crisis and the “fly-by-nighters” that tried to finance them, but it does make one concerned about ones banking relationships. How does your debt/credit position sit now and how solid do you feel about it?
Abby Badwi: Bankers is in a strong financial position. We have a positive working capital of $60 million mainly in cash with major Canadian Banks, minimal bank debt, for a company our size, of $29 million and we generate $20 million/quarter in net operating income. Our capital program is fully funded from our cash flow.
David Pescod: We’ve had a big drop in oil prices from $150 to $100, but no oil and gas companies were ever priced as if oil was really that high and now we see many oil and gas companies priced as if oil was $80. What do you see for oil prices down the road in a very new environment?
Abby Badwi: Our capital expenditure plans for 2009 and 2010 are based on Brent oil price of $84 and $80. $100 oil is a bonus. I am bullish on oil price since it’s a depleting commodity and a world that is consuming some 80+ million barrels per day.
E&P companies cannot find 80 to100 million barrel oil fields every single day. Oil prices will continue to have wide fluctuations due to the economic health of the US financial sector, the US$ and geopolitical issues around the world.
David Pescod: Albania has just increased its royalty rates, but they still remain some of the better ones on the face of earth, particularly compared to what has happened in Alberta lately. Your thoughts on working in Albania and any interesting characteristics that should be apparent?
Abby Badwi: Albania is hungry for foreign investments and Bankers is one of the largest investors in the country. A democracy since 1992, Albania is pro free market economy, privatization of the public sector corporations and has a slogan of “Albania is open for business”. It has been invited to join NATO and is an aspiring nation to join the EU.
David Pescod: The Patos-Marinza project in Albania has huge, make that enormous reserves. How much of it do you think is recoverable and what kind of production rates can you see going forward?
Abby Badwi: With two billion barrels of oil in place, Patos-Marinza has already produced 120 million barrels and has another 150 million barrels of 2P reserves remain to be recovered through primary recovery methods of reactivating existing wells and infill vertical and horizontal drilling. We believe that we can recover another 10% to 20% by secondary and tertiary recovery applications of water flood and thermal injection. The Kucova oil field has 500 million barrels of oil in place, it has produced 25 million barrels to date and we expect to recover a similar amount. We will be announcing our reserves for this field shortly. Our current plans target is 20,000 BOPD by the end of 2010.
David Pescod: I guess in a world like this, where things seem to be coming out of left field, what are your concerns about the global economy and particularly in the oil and gas business?
Abby Badwi: The escalating problems that hit major financial institutions in the US this year reached its peak with the downfall of Lehman last week and vulnerability of several other big banking names being added to the list.
The US Government intervention stabilized the situation for the time being and I believe that the US economic powers will do its share through M&A transactions that will create bigger and stronger financial institutions. Our industry is strong but you will also see increased activities in M&A in our industry this year carrying on into 2009.
David Pescod: There are an awful lot of oil and gas stocks that have been absolutely beaten up over the last few weeks. Are there any that you would recommend at these prices?
Abby Badwi: Major Canadian E&Ps such as Encana and Canadian Natural Resources lost 30% in share value over the last three months and should recover well. Of course, Bankers Petroleum is also a very good bet. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
David Pescod's Late Edition September 24
GOLD $881.76 -1.02 GOLDCORP INC. (T-G) $37.90 +0.79 YAMANA GOLD (T-YRI) $10.58 -0.02 ANDINA MINERALS (V-ADM) $1.51 -0.03
I’m not too sure if Jim Cramer has made too much money for people who watch him on CNBC over the years, but for sure he’s got an entertainment factor. Well, maybe he has an entertainment factor.
So on Monday of this week, at 3:00 PM on CNBC, he suddenly decides to get excited about gold. He says, “there is too much uncertainty in the system not to own gold. Gold is where everyone will flee to. Gold is insurance. This is the right time to own gold. Gold makes sense, when nothing makes sense.” You get the impression that he might suddenly think gold is the place to be.
Meanwhile, the chart on gold shows you that people seem to care a lot more about gold before we actually got into a panic/crisis when people are traditionally expected to gravitate towards gold, showing you once again, that nothing seems to be making sense lately.
Meanwhile, the charts shows you how some of the various stocks have done. Goldcorp being the best of class, but still way down from several months ago. Yamana being in the decent class and Andina Minerals, a junior gold with its Vulcan project in Chile that not too long ago, a lot of analysts thought should be worth anywhere between $5.50 and $8.00. The chart shows you how the more junior gold's have been absolutely crushed.
Meanwhile, the panic/crisis courtesy of Wall Street continues to attract attention and huge numbers. Just one point...while many talk about the potential big cost of $700 billion for the bail out, the bad news is that it could easily run to $1 trillion. The good news is that when you listen to the various economists, economic historians, and economic professors comment about these numbers, the suggestion is almost universal, that while that’s the upfront cost, how much it will cost taxpayers down the road isn’t known as those assets sooner or later, will be sold. That ultimate cost could be as little as $100 billion says Patricia Croft and as one economic professor suggests, somewhere between and zero and $700 billion.
CGX ENERGY (V-OYL) $1.24 +0.14 GALLEON ENERGY (T-GO.A) $10.35 +0.24
A look at the CGX Energy chart shows you the ups and downs its had over the last while, like many other junior oil and gas stocks.
First the huge success in a good market as they win the lions share of land exploration rights offshore Guyana with the disputed Suriname/Guyana border. Then reality hits that it will probably be 18 months away before they start drilling some of those plays and then the ugly market hits virtually everything.
We caught up with Kerry Sully, who is formerly the head of corporate biggie Ranchmen’s Resources who is doing the oil and gas conference tour right now currently at the Pacesetter Conference in Connecticut sponsored by Herold and then off to the COPIC Conference in Toronto and then the CORE Conference in Nova Scotia and then a Latin American oil conference in Houston (or what’s left of Houston).
For those that are wondering what it is that could get the oil and gas sector moving again, Sully tells us that one of the strong feelings coming across at the many conferences (and there’s lots of big bucks and big corporations represented at these conferences) is that it is much cheaper now to buy production in the market through mergers and acquisition than it is to go out and drill for it, possibly by as much as 30% to 40%.
That makes it worthwhile investigating mergers and acquisitions and with so many rumours rife in the Canadian oil patch these days (Galleon Energy is one of those rumours) we just wonder when that game is going to start with vengeance.
At these prices, it’s coming and might bring some life and liquidity to the sector. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
David Pescod's Late Edition September 25
The list beside this column shows some of the banks and the reported exposure so far and we emphasis that this is the number “so far” to the sub-prime mess and the housing bubble that’s been broken in the United States.
You would expect the big American banks to have big exposures, but Citigroup and Merrill Lynch to have exposures of that size, is truly dismaying.
But you look at the long list of banks around the world that have exposure and it’s truly a lesson in geography. To see someone big like Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse and the size of their exposure, shows you the size of the worldwide web in financial markets these days and then you see the Canadian banks which haven’t avoided this mess at all either.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has so far been hit with $7.3 billion and once again, that’s truly a huge number.
It’s amazing the number of people that haven’t been able to grasp the size of this mess in the States and that if credit doesn’t somehow start moving again, all industries are going to sooner or later be affected one way or another. The markets are in essence, just spinning their wheels until the rescue package is either done...or not done.
OILEXCO INC. (T-OIL) $11.70 +0.38
While we don’t know what is next for the economy, but we assume it’s going to be soft, and we don’t know whether the markets over the next while are going to feature more fear or greed, the one thing we can search for is oil and gas companies that are going to see big increases in production.
One company that many are watching with assumptions that that is going to happen is Oilexco, which is currently producing about 22,000 to 24,000 barrels a day. It’s expected or has been suggested by many analysts that they are on their way to 40,000 to 45,000 barrels a day, sometime in the next three months or so.
We go to Rob Elgie, the IR guy at Oilexco to find out exactly what they expect. Elgie suggests that towards the end of Q4 and continuing into Q1 2009, the Company expects to see the following:
1. Two re-worked wells on the Balmoral field that were previously shut in put on production.
2. A well in the Nicol field put on production.
3. Two wells in the Shelley field put on production.
4. One well from the Caledonia field put on production.
He suggests “The Company is targeting production of 45,000 bbls/d as a 2008 exit rate, and that if this figure is not achieved by December 31st, it is expected it will occur in the first quarter. Weather remains the biggest risk factor for initiating production in the North Sea at this time of year.”
RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX: CSI 300 INDEX:
On the previous page, we listed some of the exposures of banks around the world to the sub-prime mess in the United States, and we all know markets in Canada and the United States have been absolutely hammered. But here are two charts of two of the worst exchanges on the face of the earth and who would have thought the Russians the Chinese would have been affected too, but they have.
In the main, they have been affected because of the mess around the world, but they have also had their own little problems that have accentuated it. In China, most Chinese are brand new to the capital markets and don’t really know what stocks should be traded at or valued at so many of them were trading at P/E ratios multiples of what they should have fetched, but then who knew what it was worth. They had their own little bubble—their stock market. So the Chinese market when the bubble burst, has probably been accentuated more on the downside than most.
Meanwhile, the Russian market which had been booming because of good times in the oil and gas business, has also been clobbered not only because of the American mess, but because of their little excursion into Georgia had a lot of international investors fleeing that market.
The bad news about both of these markets is that when you look at the scale of the decline, you just know that if you were margined in either of these markets, you could have been wiped out... _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
David Pescod's Late Edition September 26
WASHINGTON MUTUAL (US:WM) $0.16 -1.53 WACHOVIA CORP. (US:WB) $8.35 -5.35
Just another day in the markets folks—and you will be able to tell your grandchildren you were there during the crash of 2008...and survived...at least we hope we do!
Today it’s Washington Mutual, one of the biggest banks in the U.S.A. being seized by government regulators and its assets being sold to JP Morgan and shareholders left with next to nothing.
Obviously those that were banking with WaMu were aware of the concern about this thrift as Bloomberg reports that $17 billion were yanked from the bank in the last ten days, leaving the Seattle-based bank “unsound”. This credit crisis just grows and it’s more difficult to companies to borrow money and even cities and governments to arrange their financial matters. Banks won’t lend and commerce suffers.
The effect on things financial shows up in bank runs in Hong Kong, official recognition of New Zealand and Ireland now being in recession and markets worldwide being chaotic and brutal. Needless to say, a bailout package from Washington is necessary to get credit going again as this is where it all started.
An easy-money policy that started the housing bubble is just too ironic...as a few decades ago it was the Savings and Loan crisis...the same thing all over again, another housing bubble.
This is not a good day for Bloomberg’s to be detailing how $3 billion was lavished on top bank executives over the last five years as some of that outlandish and stupid compensation (where were the directors—the shareholders to complain) is standing in the way of getting this bailout done.
I suspect however, that is changing as Dick Fuld, the former boss of Lehman Brothers is today rumoured on Bloomberg to having to sell his art collection to pay family bills….ironic, isn’t it. (You think you’ve had a bad year, Fuld, CEO of Lehman’s had stock worth $1 billion in January that is now virtually worthless).
Meanwhile, Warren Buffett the world’s richest man who complained for years of not being able to find good companies to buy and has been sitting on a wad of cash ($40 billion worth) is now spending like crazy. He supposedly invested $25 billion on six deals in the last few weeks. I guess you are supposed to take advantage of times like these.
I suspect by Christmas 2009, we will be looking back at this time and saying, “I’m sure glad I took advantage of that time and …”. Yes, you fill in the blanks.
GOLDCORP INC. (T-G) $34.55 -1.05 YAMANA GOLD (T-YRI) $9.23 -0.67 AURELIAN RES. (T-ARU) $5.79 -0.07 ROCKWELL DIAMONDS (T-RDI) $0.34 +.005 ANDINA MINERALS (V-ADM) $1.41 n/c
In the beaten up precious metals sector, there is a report out that’s catching the markets attention dramatically these days courtesy of Blackmont Capital.
First of all in the Blackmont report that’s called “The State is set for M&A in the Gold and Silver Sector” they point out that since the March 2008, while gold is only down 15% they point out that the senior gold's are down 33%, the mid-tiers down 37% and the poor juniors have been absolutely annihilated, losing 54% of their value hence Blackmont’s report asserts that the asset-hungry producers are set to feast on vulnerable juniors.
Blackmont Capital writes, “While the volatile markets and global financial crisis are deservedly dominating discussions these days, we believe the stage is set for an unprecedented increase of merger and acquisition activity in the precious metals sector. For reasons and circumstances largely beyond the control of the companies themselves, valuations are down for all gold and silver companies. However, the senior and mid-tier producers' cash flow and stable balance sheets put them in an excellent position to acquire the (cheap/undervalued) junior producers and development companies that are stretched for cash, personnel, and relevance.” Stuff like that usually happens in market sell-offs like we are currently experiencing ... make that market crashes, when suddenly valuations are a fraction of what they used to be.
What makes the Blackmont report absolutely fascinating is they have the gall to predict what would make sense for which senior producer to try and acquire. For instance, for Newmont Mining, which is one of the biggest miners out there with a capitalization of $21 billion, they suggest under what they should buy and why:
1. Yamana Gold, (down 52% from highs) which would add growth through large, low cost projects at El Penon and Chapada, both with low political risk. The difference in multiples would make this a highly accretive acquisition for Newmont.
2. Osisko Exploration, (down 51% from its highs) provides large (8.4 mm oz) project in Quebec that has the potential to be a significant producer for Newmont in a safe and low-risk jurisdiction. Osisko management recently sold 8 mm shares to a “strategic investor”.
3. Gabriel Resources, (down 38% from highs). Newmont already owns 19.9% of Gabriel and an upcoming national election in Romania could be catalyst for development of Rosia Montana (14.6 mm oz) to re-start massively accretive to EV.
For Kinross Gold, Blackmont suggests that company, currently with a market capitalization of $10 billion, consider buying three different companies. Their suggestions are:
1. Andina Minerals, (down 74% from its highs). They suggest an acquisition primarily for project synergies as Andina’s Volcan project has a low-grade resource of 9.4 mm oz and is located only 23km from Kinross’ operating Maricunga mine. Andina management also has ties to Kinross.
2. Jaguar Mining, (down 56% from highs). Kinross is already well positioned in Brazil at Paracatu and Crixas, and the addition of Jaguar’s assets would provide near-term production growth, an existing operating team, and a suite of assets in a safe region to offset the Russian/Ecuador risk.
3. Victoria Gold, (down 73% from highs). Kinross already owns 26% of Victoria Gold and Victoria’s portfolio of high-quality exploration targets in low-risk Nevada would offset the heightened political risk of recently acquired Aurelian Resources (Ecuador).
For Yamana Gold, they suggest purchases of :
1. Andean Resources (down 48% from highs)
2. Exeter Resources (down 61% from highs)
3. Carpathian Gold (down 50% from highs)
We suspect though, that there are so many juniors and mid-tiers trading at such enormous discounts from recent prices, that this game which recently saw Aurelian bought out and in the last few days, Rockwell (which has just received an offer) is probably just starting.
It will be interesting to see how successful the good folks at Blackmont are on their guesstimating game, but it’s a must-reading report on who else—Agnico-Eagle, Barrick Gold, Goldcorp, Eldorado, New Gold and IAMGold should consider buying.
While Blackmont came up with some very interesting suggestions, they admit, “These suggestions are purely speculative and are based on: geographic and project synergies, past and current rumors and what we would do if we were running these companies.”
Must-reading!
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