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Strategies & Market Trends : US Economic Trend Analysis

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From: gpowell	9/29/2008 8:37:41 PM
	of 97

A post on the Realestate crash board: The housing run-up is one of the most potentially destructive, pathetic events in U.S. History. It's ramifications range from enivironmental destruction to economic destruction. Those that profited from it should be ashamed and those who caused it should be taken out and whipped. Like the stock market in 2000, a generation of gains were had in a few years. Those buying now run the risk of financial devistation. Those that have been renting, saving, living on a boat, been out of the country for the last few years, taking care of sick relatives or simply saving for a first home have been screwed over royally. Even sadder is the fact that the government will be happy to perpetuate it putting a greater number of people at risk. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a taxpayer bailout. To let something as basic as housing become a bubble game is totally irresponsible and unconscionable. The people responsible for this should be identified and be made to pay for what they have done. [12/25/2005] Message 24998242 Author is congratulating himself. But notice that he is talking about the run-up in home prices as of Dec 2005. Where are home prices now? According to the case-shiller index, they are at mid-2004 levels. According to housing stock data (from flow of funds accounts) about mid-2005 levels. So the author is congratulating himself now over an old post that was way WAY out of proportion to legitimate concerns ABOUT home prices, and who now is seemingly oblivious to the fact that home prices are essentially at the levels where he declared them in bubble. The point here is the need to separate the current crisis in the MBS/CMO markets from house price direction itself. Congratulate yourself if you correctly foresaw that government implied bailouts would lead to mis-priced risk and the need of a bailout.

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