Jonathan:
You said:
"I read somewhere that the construction will begin early in '98, and actual processing begins about a year later. Has anybody heard different or anything to add?"
Well you could have read the company press releases posted earlier on this thread which confirm what you "read somewhere". In particular, this press release (September 17): techstocks.com contains the following statement:
"We will be moving into detailed engineering by November and remain on track to begin construction early in 1998. We are fully committed to delivering product to our customers by early 1999."
The following press release (October 6): techstocks.com says that Atacama "is pleased to announce that it has received approval of an Environmental Impact Statement ("EIS") for its Aguas Blancas Project in Region II in northern Chile." The environmental approval is the only approval that I have heard of. I do not know if has obtained any other approvals.
Of course none of this is _independent_ confirmation. Scott Fraser and the analysts are probably getting their information from the same source - the company. Basically, you have to trust the company for information given the geographic remoteness of the project.
The geographic remoteness of the project, and the fact that the company appears to be the only source for information about the project is sort of similar to the situation that Bre-X was in. If you spoke Spanish, you might call the Chilean Gov't geologist responsbile for the area and see what he/she has to say.
This is why, in post techstocks.com "I think that the time to [buy the stock] is when the debt financing is announced - this would be AFTER the Due Diligence and review of the mining plan by the lender. While I may not get the best price, the risk should be a lot lower than it is now." The reason that the risk is lower is that through the act if lending the company money, the lender will be providing support for the company's claims - that they have a feasible plan for profitably extracting minerals from the ground.
That being said, I did purchase some shares, as a speculation, after I saw the numbers in the Oct. 6 announcement.
Some questions for you:
1. Who is Scott Fraser and what is his epxerience? Is he a mining engineer, or does he have any experience in the management of a mining company?
2. Do companies pay him to have articles written in his newsletters?
3. Does he own any of the stocks that he is recommending?
4. What negatives and positives does he see for the company that resulted in his "hold" rating? Given the recent announcements, if I were an analyst, I might rate this company a "speculative buy", rather than a "hold".
5. Does Scott indicate if he has checked any of the information that the company has provided with the Chilean government?
Regards,
John Sladek |
