Longer-Term Market Trends Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends

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To: jjstingray who wrote (1800)	10/2/2008 11:37:39 AM
From: AllansAlias	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 3209

Everyday some other thing to blame. It is a little disappointing, but not surprising, that we have changed our outlook so little in 600 years of "markets". Here's the thing about moral hazard and systemic risk -- most of the time, it does not pay to heed the warnings. For the great part of the time since the 1990's, when things started to get weird on the systemic risk front, it paid to stay long. It also paid not to have any insurance against losses. However, one had to be ready to change stance -- as many of us here did in 2000 and again this past year -- because we believed in the systemic risk and the chart events in 2000 and 2008 told us that "we might be there". What is happening is natural and expected. It's bad, but it is wholly natural and expected. 99% of the time, it does not pay to bet on the worse. We are in the 1% of the time when you need to be extremely diligent about preserving your assets imho. Finally, do not be thinking that this is just a financial crisis. That implies something short and painful, and by extension, something that you should be looking to buy. To quote Bill Clinton and James Carville -- "It's the economy stupid."

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