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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 380.060.0%Nov 25 4:00 PM EST

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To: Siddhartha Gautama who wrote (40642)10/3/2008 8:49:56 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) of 218018
 
just in in-tray

the market reaction to the bail-out - essentially a 450 point intra-day loss in the Dow from high to close - is quite informative actually. it is the exact opposite of what 'everybody' expected, and as always, it's not the news, but the reaction to them that counts.

this is essentially telling us: the market is still in a third wave down. it is still the same crash wave that started at the early August high (the top of wave 2 of 3). it is extremely volatile and keeps producing big 'oversold' readings , but it's actually still smaller than wave 1 of 3 was (that one was 225 SPX points, the current wave is only slightly over 200 points large).

it would actually make sense for this wave to be some fibo multiple of wave 1 of 3, for instance 1,61 times wave 1. that would make it slightly over 360 points large, which is to say another 160 SPX points from here, targeting 940.

after an intervening rally, wave 5 of 3 could then retest this low, and then we should finally see a larger (multi-week/month) rebound.
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