xDSL modems, and ADSL in particular, have a much tougher cost
challenge, since massive amounts of digital signal processing (DSP)
horsepower are required to squeeze up to 8 Mbps of data over copper
wires originally designed to carry only analog voice.
The study predicts that the average DSL modem pair will drop from
the present level of about $2,400.00 to a more palatable $200.00 by
the year 2002, though serious question remain about the ability to
make DSL work on real telephone lines now in the ground.
Battle Between Cable and xDSL Modems for
Broadband Residential Access Is over Says New Report
Business Editors/Computer Writers
TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 21, 1997--The battle for
high-speed broadband data services to both home and business is being
played out as a conflict between the telephone companies and the
cable operators.
The prize awaiting the victor is the revenue stream from
satisfying demand for Internet-based services and corporate remote
access needs. To assist forward observers in this broadband war,
Forward Concepts has published a new market study that details the
market dynamics that favor one broadband scheme over another.
According to the study, cable modems will win the lion's share of
the North American residential access market, growing to an installed
base of over 7 million units with unit prices falling below $150 by
the year 2002, more than 4x the residential DSL base. Worldwide,
cable is forecast to beat xDSL as well, but not by as commanding a
margin.
The study, entitled "Broadband in the Local Loop: Cable Modem
Madness vs. xDSL Dementia," observes that the demand for increased
bandwidth is nearly insatiable. However, the higher cost of
high-bandwidth services is a major concern for residential users.
The study forecasts that the worldwide residential broadband
access installed base will approach 20 million users by the year
2002, not enough to support the vast numbers of players in today's
broadband modem industry.
The study forecasts the market for a variety of high-speed
modems, including one- and two-way cable modems and both residential
and business modems for the several types of data subscriber links
(DSLs). Forecasts of cable modems and xDSL modems (ADSL, RDSL, SDSL,
and HDSL) for North American and worldwide markets, both residential
and business, are presented through the year 2002.
The study examines the incentives for broadband adoption,
including the effect of the Internet, remote LAN access,
video-on-demand by telephone companies, cable telephony, and
videoconferencing. The study also discusses other broadband
alternatives, including terrestrial wireless, satellite, and
intercast services and the effect of Internet TV.
xDSL modems, and ADSL in particular, have a much tougher cost
challenge, since massive amounts of digital signal processing (DSP)
horsepower are required to squeeze up to 8 Mbps of data over copper
wires originally designed to carry only analog voice.
The study predicts that the average DSL modem pair will drop from
the present level of about $2,400.00 to a more palatable $200.00 by
the year 2002, though serious question remain about the ability to
make DSL work on real telephone lines now in the ground.
The 250-page report with 100 figures and tables is available
immediately. "Broadband in the Local Loop," Report No. 741, is
priced at $2,500.00 for the first copy and $500 for subsequent
copies. Details are available on line at fwdconcepts.com
and a free brochure is available from Forward Concepts, 1575 W.
University Dr., Suite 111, Tempe, AZ 85281, Tel: 602/968-3759, Fax:
602/968-7145, e-mail: fc@fwdconcepts.com. |
