You seem to be making *four* predictions:
1) I think Huckabee will outflank Palin as the "Governor with core values" for 2012. He is already running hard and setting himself up as the true populist.
(I have previously posted my opinion that I believe that Huckabee, one of the surprisingly good campaigners of this political season, will be one of the front-runners for the GOP in 2012. Perhaps even #1.)
2) Romney will position himself as a true "doer" in the financial, governmental and organizational world. His string of achievements will be greater tha Palin or Huck. He will run on competency and economic conservative principles, shying away from the social conservative side.
(Believe he will run again... but also that his 'negatives' will remain the same, and that his upside potential will be no greater than it proved to be this go-round. Hedge Fund expertise --- given the many, many revelations yet to come about Hedge Fund involvement in the unregulated financial derivatives at the heart of this global financial crisis and the recessions to come --- may not be such a 'vote-getting resume point'. <g> With one tenth of Romney's financing Huckabee ran a stronger campaign. Given equal funding, Huck runs rings around Romney.)
3) A dark horse will emerge out of the House of Representatives. Someone who voted against the bailout and will try to get Ron Pauls' support and that of his followers. A strict fiscal conservative with strong incentives for small business. This candidate will run away from the social conservative issues and focus on economic and national security.
(This is the most interesting idea, IMHO. Also quite possible that Libertarian principles of fiscal prudence, small government, and personal liberty may prove out be be stronger political draws in the mid-term then Big Government 'social conservatism' --- given the continuation of current demographic trends.)
4) Then there is Newt. The idea man.
(This one I *disagree* with. He will angle to keep himself in front of the public --- that's for certain, and may even harbor some delusions about his viability as a national candidate... but he will not get anywhere as a national candidate, and likely is bound for Talk Radio instead.) |
