Except for being black Obama's just another northern liberal, like Stevenson, Humphrey, Mondale, Musky, McGovern, Dukakis, Kerry that have been losing elections for decades. The only northern liberal to win since FDR was JFK. Northern liberal Democrats need a great deal of personal charisma to win. A Great Depression helps too. Does Obama have it? He definitely does inspire liberals and blacks, but not others.
All other successful Democrat Presidential candidates in this century have been southerners - Wilson, Truman, Johnson, Carter, Clinton. Even they weren't shoo-ins. And lately southern Democrats are having problems - see Gore and Edwards, neither of whom carried their own home states.
High turnout and fraud among liberals and blacks I believe will be offset by PUMA anger and the Bradley effect (more people say they'll vote for black candidates than actually do). Hillary won more popular votes in the primaries than Obama, yet she wasn't even considered by the party as Presidential material and by Obama as a VP candidate. A complete snub. She won primary elections in most of the biggest states - CA, TX, NY, NJ, MA, PA, OH, FL. Will all of Hillary's supporters follow along and vote in Obama? There is real division in the Democratic party.
I'm betting high turnout among blacks and liberals will be counter balanced by low turnout and defection (to McCain) by other Democrats (Hillary's voters).
Meanwhile, Sarah Palin has excited the Republican base and is attracting some of Hillary's voters to McCain.
Bottom line: McCain should win. JMO |
