"We may miss 10-20%"
Staying in cash, not buying now surely seems the way to go now. And if the trade off is that the market turns and somebody misses the first 10-20%, that seems like a reasonable price to pay. It's not going to be such an easy thing though, imo.
The thing is so many stocks now routinely have large interday moves. COP for example, today between 60-67, CHK 22-27 roughly, or say NBG 6.16-8.05 within two days.
My opinion is that since so many, many stocks fluctuate like this, it's not possible at the time to know when the bottom is in. If xyz stock moves up 20% from its low point, and that's a stock of interest, and there's no specific news on the stock - rather just a movement because the DOW and other stocks are up - then one does not know and has very little confidence that the bottom was reached and that the stock will not move quickly back down like it and others seem to be doing.
My opinion is that if someone is expecting to buy at bottom + 20%, one won't know the bottom is in until after a much larger and sustainable rise, maybe 30-40%. In this type of market anyway, where volatility is rampant. |
