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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait?
TXN 160.31-3.9%Oct 29 3:59 PM EDT
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To: John Bachman who wrote (6135)10/8/2008 9:57:23 AM
From: tree_toe_bandito   of 6180
 
The take-away is that GE is a company with real, formidable problems. GE has to roll over $100 billion a quarter in commercial paper in the midst of the worst credit freeze in history. TXN's problems have not yet come to light, but it seems to me that the chart is saying that the problems are there, and comparable in magnitude to GE's.

TXN price seems to be driven by investors in the know. Over the past 30 years there have been repeated times when TXN price collapsed without apparent reason (at least to me) until the stock completed a huge drop in price.

Now TXN is selling at a PE of 9 or 10 with no debt, over a billion $ in cash, paying 2% dividend, and analyst estimates for next year show no significant change in earnings. All that sounds good. The chart is telling us there is bad news to come (IMHO).

GE has dropped below it's post bubble low. TXN still has 7 or 8 points to go. Let's hope I'm wrong.

There are other big cap cyclical stocks that are not following this pattern. I am assuming that charts that do are doing so because of serious problems with their fundamentals. I'm trying to use the charts to project a price target for TXN.

I'm saying that the chart similarities are a warning about TXN prospects. It's just a theory of course, but it needs to be considered.
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