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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: ChanceIs who wrote (155443)10/8/2008 5:14:24 PM
From: ChanceIsRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
RE: Hangin at the AEI - Personal ruminations:

1) I am not sure if they made a video of this one. I didn't see any cameras in the conference center. If they did it will be available in a few days. If it is and you don't invest the two hours to watch it, ........then you are....well....an idiot who deserves to loose everything in the market,

2) Things are bad. Bad, bad, bad. This is the most complicated, intertwined financial crisis ever.

3) All agreed that you have to act quickly and decisively. We have not done that - already a year gone by. We will not be able to act for another four months because of the election and time to install the new Administration/Congress. That will hurt badly. Precious, precious time lost.

4) The point about shorting a bailout target's stock and buying its debt when you can smell it in the wind needs to be put away in the investment toolbox for future reference/action - only for those of us who want t get rich overnight of course.

5) The point about Citi bouncing 20% in a day post confession needs to be heeded. The market wants to bounce - incredibly oversold short term here. If a solution pops out, watch out.

What is my gut telling me???

Strictly speaking...my gut only....

Things are very, very, bad. DOW down 200 on a major rate cut. Those guys at the AEI are not sanguine in the short term at all. They acknowledge that the dawn always comes - but I think they are only being polite.

I am waiting for a bounce here to sell all of my long energy stocks. I will probably sell a few puts underneath them if I do. I will probably do the opposite with my few remaining bank shorts. Man I got toasted when Cox pulled that short sale ban nonsense. Hey!!!! That ban expires tonight. Should get real interesting.

I think that it will take five years for the broad economy to get back to its rather poor shape of today. IOW - down for another 2.5 and then a slow crawl back up.
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