My gut feeling is that we will bounce by Tuesday, but there won't be the same resilience as in '87 because production steamed on in that case, and now it is imploding. The auto industry, the real-estate industry (mortgage lenders, home builders, escrow, agents, etc.) plus the retrenchment from the money shifters on Wall Street (profits will decline from 33% of the economy to 10-12% where they rationally must remain) that there is going to be a huge amount of retrenchment.
In other words, we may have a spike down on a panic, but the dead cat bounce will not be fully supported, and after that, either we have more 'revelations' ala Iceland and have another powerful downdraft or more likely in my view we start to stumble along, probably with a negative bias, for six months or so.
However, everything being rather unprecedented, I reserve the right to change my mind the instant I hit "Submit Public" <g> |
