Longer-Term Market Trends Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends

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To: Perspective who wrote (1903)	10/9/2008 7:37:44 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) of 3209

The velocity of the decline is amazing... From 2000 to 2002 SPX received a 50% haircut, and spent over 2 1/2 years getting there. This time around it made from 1576 to almost 900 in barely a year. In the short term it may bounce soon, but the longer picture is likely to pack some more surprises. One possible surprise might be that the overall decline may go lower than anyone expects. In 1929 - 1932 the DOW lost, as I recall, 86% off the top. Sounds wildly bearish, but hey, we just dropped 75 points today, in one single day. Looking at the SP weekly, we must be in the latter phases of Wave 3 of 3. Waves don't always follow the textbook, but what's due next is Waves 4 AND 5 OF 3 - to be followed by a larger consolidation (W4) which will need to match the March - May rally. After that.... Houston, we may have a problem - expect the 5th, probably to new lows sometime next year. It's a once in a lifetime play. You should be proud that you did well.

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