Obama 52% Victory Forecast by Yale Professor's Economy Model
By Matthew Benjamin
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Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- With 25 days before Election Day, a forecasting model that has called the top vote-getter in the last three presidential races predicts a solid victory for Barack Obama.
The Democratic presidential candidate will get about 52 percent of the popular vote on Nov. 4, according to an economic model developed by Yale University Professor Ray Fair.
``The model has predicted all along that the Democrat will get the majority of the two-party vote, and it's still saying that,'' Fair, who has been forecasting a Democratic victory since November 2006, said in a telephone interview from New Haven, Connecticut.
Fair cautions, though, that his algorithm doesn't measure the effects of race, age or foreign policy, all of which may play an outsize role this election, the first in which a black candidate is a major-party nominee. ``All the political stuff isn't accounted for,'' said Fair.
The only economic data that Fair's vote equation uses that are still unknown are third-quarter gross domestic product growth and inflation. Assuming a 0.2 percent decline in GDP this quarter, the median of a recent Bloomberg survey of 52 economists, and 3 percent inflation, the model forecasts Republican John McCain will receive 48 percent of the vote.
The margin of error of 2.5 percentage points means some probability remains that McCain will win. Fair said the chances that his model will incorrectly predict the election result are roughly 20 percent to 25 percent.
Financial Crisis
Fair's methodology also doesn't take into account the current financial crisis that is roiling credit and equity markets and generating fears of an acute recession among consumers and investors. The crisis, which has triggered bank failures and sweeping government interventions in the economy, is expected to have its biggest impact on official statistics in the fourth quarter and beyond.
``If people perceive the economy to be worse than the variables we're using, then the equation will be underestimating the Democratic share of the vote,'' said Fair.
Eight in 10 respondents to a Sept. 19-22 Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey said the economy is doing badly, and more than half said very badly. Asked which candidate has better ideas for strengthening the economy, respondents said Obama by a margin of 46 percent to 32 percent.
They said Obama, 47, an Illinois senator, would be better than Arizona Senator McCain, 72, at handling the financial crisis by a margin of 45 percent to 33 percent.
Voter Anxiety
Economic anxiety is pushing many voters toward Obama. The McCain campaign pulled out of Michigan last week, an economically hard-hit battleground state that until last month was one of the Republican's top targets.
National polls show Obama widening his national lead in recent weeks. An Oct. 5-7 Gallup tracking poll showed voters favoring the Democrat by a margin of 52 percent to 41 percent. Other polls portray a narrower race. The Diageo/Hotline poll says Obama leads by a single point, 45 percent to 44 percent; a C-Span poll has Obama leading by about 2 percentage points.
Fair's equation takes into account which party currently holds the White House and for how long, whether the incumbent is running, growth and inflation. One variable he calls ``good news'' is the number of quarters in the last four years in which GDP growth exceeded 4.2 percent.
Fair's model would have correctly predicted the winner of the two-party vote in all but three elections since 1916, according to a 2002 paper published on his Web site. Before the three most recent elections, he accurately forecast who would get more votes without always getting the margin right.
In August 1996, he said the data suggested a narrow victory for incumbent President Bill Clinton in a race that was too close to call ``with any confidence.'' Clinton won 49.2 percent of the popular vote; Republican Robert Dole got 40.7 percent.
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So will voters vote their past prejudices or their future well-being?
That shouldn't even be a question but, unfortunately, it still is. Maybe we'll all grow up and vote for our own economic well being instead of letting the right wing liars fear-monger us into utter stupidity...one can only hope. |
