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Biotech / Medical : Biotech & Pharma.T.A,
BIB 77.21-1.5%Dec 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jibacoa who wrote (2147)10/10/2008 12:47:23 PM
From: Jibacoa  Read Replies (2) of 3722
 
O.T. Looking at the market's drop again.<g>

Back in January, I commented:

The "correction" from the Jan2000 H of 11908 to the Oct2002 L of 7177 was of 4731 points or 39.73% from the H.

If we get the same % "correction" from the Oct H of 14279 it would be of 5673 points, or to the 8606 level, but if the "expected recession" doesn't get as bad as many people think, the gold starts to come down below the 900 level & the "correction" is only of 30% then it would be only a drop of 4284 points from the Oct H to the 10000 level.<g>


The 10000 level didn't hold, gold is still close to the $900 level and the 'expected recession' seems now that it may become worse than many people thought. The DOW at the present 8250 level, has made a 'correction' of 42.2% which is larger than the 'correction' from the Jan2000 H to the Oct2002 L and also accomplished in much less time or at much faster pace.

As previously mentioned, the drop in the DOW at the time of the 'depression' in 1929-1932 from the H of 381 on Sep29 to the L of 41 on Jul32 was of 89% & the same % drop from the Oct2007 H would be of 12742 points or to the 1536 level.<g>

Let's hope that at the meeting of the G7 tomorrow they can come out with some new measures that may help us to go into a 'depression'.

Unless one wants to continue playing the short side with DXD MYY MZZ SH PSQ QID or similar tools, it still seems better to keep the power dry.

Bernard

P.S. A note of caution to the short players:
If you draw a trendline on any of the above ETFs' charts from the tops of the daily Hs at the start of the upmoves in late June, just note that the line is now intersecting with the present Hs, which seems to indicate that this rather fast pace is near an end, at least for some time.<g>
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