<gggg> but one should not forget that Rogers advocated buying agricultural commodities for the last year - any one following his advise needed ot liquidate upon margin calls
I think Rogers is more of a talking parot - he newer told any one to get out of commodities in a timely manner - I at least did it even if I missed the perfect top!!
(below an e-mail send to Bank HaPoalim and other subscribers on March 11, 2008)
From: Haim R. Branisteanu [mailto:hbranisteanu@bezeqint.net]
Sent: Tuesday, March 11, 2008 3:54 AM
XXXXXXXX (recipients addresses erased)
Subject: Closing ALL LONG commodities position - Cash is King
TO ALL;
The tremendous commodities rally, (in all commodities in USD denomination) is coming to an end, and enter a consolidation phase and possible correction such as grains, legumes, food, fiber and energy (including coal). The risk reward ratio does not pay to be still long this class of assets. The agile speculator may squeeze some meager profits but that is all IMHO. High profile commodity such as Gold may crack the $1,000 level with lots of jubilation.
Retail investors are entering this market in record numbers which is a sign of tops, and the farmer all over the world is reaping handsome profits, which is a very rare situation.
Only by September - October the picture will be clearer as correct estimates of the harvest will come in and proof of an US recovery or malaise will be certain.
The present US slowdown or recession will affect the rest of the world and China’s huge demand will diminish after this summer Olympics. This with an Yuan appreciation due to China’s high inflation will also slow the economic growth in China. The other engine, India will soon follow.
The housing debacle witnessed in the US is spreading to UK, Spain etc., E. Europe and Far East. Best indication is following the dumb and greedy Israeli RE developer as an indication of tops in those markets, in which markets the Israeli developers are all over themselves in the Far East now.
In another vein, please wish my mother all the luck and health she can have
Haim |
