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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 151.94+1.1%3:59 PM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2851)10/21/1997 2:04:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Brian,

The "bearish scenario" is that the semi-equips will not meet their 98 forcasted EPS numbers because sales will be slower than expected. The "gremlins" responsible are DRAM prices, the 300mm transition, and concern about the level of chip manufacturers growth in 98.

In the First Boston downgrade of AMAT yesterday, they forecasted an 8% semi-equip industry growth rate which is in contrast with the current concensus of 15-20%.

The "bearish scenario" has been aided by the high valuations accorded many of the semi-equips during this 97 runup.

Hopefully, the fears for next year will turn out to be exaggerated, and this correction will set the stage for another move up. I don't know what 98 will look like, so I have advised that investors wait for the AMAT CC for guidance.

Cary
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