DDR3 Technology Progress and Future Development; Brief Introduction to NAND Flash Package Technology
(no other industry is pshing arder to over
Compared to DDR2, DDR3 can save roughly 30% of power and speed to 1600Mbps – nearly twice as fast as DDR2.
unfortunately it's difficult to turn this into profitability -
semis always provide a better and less expensive product to consumer but how to benefit from it.
profits are Wall Street's concern - but wait .... Asia views semiconductors as a strategic investment....and those Arabs buy a good chnk of AMD...AMD = Arabic Micro Decives
Published Oct.7, 2008
DDR3 Technology Progress and Future Development
To DRAM industry, 2007 and 2008 are absolutely considered the down years. Over expansion by the DRAM makers resulted in an over-supplied market where DDR2 die price fell sharply. With the expectation of lower PC sales in Q4, DRAM inventory is expected to continue its climb and DRAM price is expected to break new lows. Up to this point, DDR2 1Gb eTT spot price is now at 1.15 USD and DDR2 667 1Gb is down to 1.19 USD. Even though DDR2 price is already below its variable cost, for DRAM makers, developing DDR3 remains the key factor to winning the next war.
DDR3 was initially developed in beginning of 2005 but was not applied on motherboard until middle of 2007 when DDR3 first began production in 90nm and when the Intel first introduced the P35 motherboard – the first motherboard to support DDR3. With the advancement in process and continued introduction of new PC models, DRAMeXchange analyst expects DDR3 to be part of 20-30% of all PC market.
DDR3 Specification Advantages: high data rate and low power supply
According to the JEDEC specification, technically DDR3 is high data rate and low power supply. Compared to DDR2, DDR3 can save roughly 30% of power and speed to 1600Mbps – nearly twice as fast as DDR2. Because of the high data rate, DDR3 can transmit 8-bit of data in 1 clock cycle while DDR2 can only transmit 4-bit in 1 clock cycle. DDR3 operates at 1.5V supply which is 17% lower than 1.8V supply required by DDR2. The low power supply will allow NB to extend its battery life. There are even talks of using an ultra low 1.35V supply in certain NB makers’ roadmaps in order to grab shares in the high end NB market and distance themselves from competitors in terms of technical specifications. (Figure-1)
Strong support for DDR3 from Intel Chipset vendors
In terms of support for DDR3, Intel chipsets claims the best support for DDR3 with the most number of chipsets and with the most complete support ranging from low to mid/high end. The only difference in terms DDR3 support is the speed especially with Intel's high end X Series chipset which supports Intel XMP (eXtended Memory Profile) over-clocking system to optimize DDR3 memory performance. Although its core strength is in the graphic chip market, nVidia has also begun to introduce DDR3 support in its nForce Series chipsets with a memory over-clocking system – EPP2 (Enhanced Performance Profile) - which optimizes DDR3 memory performance by fine tuning the DDR3 memory configurations in similar fashion as Intel’s XMP system. However, because its memory controller is built into the CPU due to its CPU architecture, AMD will not be able to support DDR3 until the next generation AM3 is launched. (Figure-2)
DDR3 Process development and Current Market Analysis
From the product roadmaps, currently, the only DDR3 manufacturers continue to be the primary DRAM makers such as Samsung, Hynix, and Elpida. Of the Taiwanese DRAM makers, only Nanya has begun manufacturing DDR3 dies. From the production scales, Samsung and Elpida are the most aggressive in ramping up DDR3 production. DRAMeXchange estimates Samsung and Elpida will have nearly 10% of their production capacity focused on DDR3 production. In addition, with advancement in process, DDR3 dies will begin to be produced with 70nm, 65nms or even 56nm process beginning the second half of this year and will officially begin mass production in these advance process sometimes in 2009. Given the increased willingness to adopt DDR3 among the PC OEM makers, it is possible for DDR3 to reach a large enough economy of scale and to begin a generation shift from DDR2 to DDR3 (Figure-3)
According to DRAMeXchange figures, DDR3 dies will make up roughly 5% of total DRAM die produced by the end of this year. Although the proportion is small, DRAM makers have been very persuasive in convincing PC OEM makers to adopt DDR3. Besides promising a steady supply of DDR3 dies, DRAM makers have offered extremely attractive prices to lower the price barrier between DDR2 and DDR3 memory modules for those PC makers who are willing to adopt DDR3. Thus, in NB market, we have begun to see new product launches featuring DDR3 from branded PC makers such as Dell, Sony, Lenovo, Toshiba, Acer, etc. We expect more PC OEM makers to launch products containing DDR3 by end of this year.
Brief Introduction to NAND Flash Package Technology
Current NAND Flash packaging selection consists of mostly TSOP, FBGA, or LGA. As the end products become smaller and thinner, mainstream NAND Flash packages are also required to be smaller and cheaper.
TSOP (Thin Smaller Outline Package) is the most widely used package for NAND Flash package currently. With TSOP, output pins from the lead frame can be attached to PCB surface directly using SMT (Surface Mount Technology). TSOP is widely adopted in the industry because of its high reliability and yield, its relative ease of adoption, its lower price, and its compatibility with high frequency applications given its reduced parasitic parameters.
FBGA (Fine Ball Grid Array) is mainly applied in packaging LSI chips such as in memories or chipsets for motherboards. FBGA technology is special in its improved assembly yield over previous BGA technology; this improved yield can be attributed to the fact that, although the number of lead lines increases, spacing between lead lines has not increased. Although power dissipated for FBGA is increased compared to BGA, its reliability is also improved because of the vast performance improvement in heat dissipation which reduces weight and improves quality of signal transmission.
Application of FBGA in memory products can increase memory capacity many folds given the same physical dimension. Compared to TSOP, FBGA features a smaller physical dimension and a better heat dissipation performance. FBGA technology allows the storage per square inch to improve dramatically while physical dimension is only roughly 1/3 of TSOP with similar capacity. Compared to the traditional TSOP, FBGA features improved data transmission rate, more effective heat dissipation path, excellent stability and more expandability for future applications.
LGA (Land Grid Array) is a type of surface mount packaging which can be electrically connected to a PCB either by using a socket or by soldering directly to the PCB. Unlike previous PGA (pin grid array) interface, there are no pins on the chip; in place of pins are pads of bare gold-plated copper that touch pins on the motherboard. Current LGA supports either 227 pads (1.27mm center to center distance) or 447 pads (2.54mm center to center distance) in Ceramic LGA forms. LGA is mainly applied in high speed logic LSI applications because of low electrical parasitic. However, LGA is currently more expensive and less widely deployed due to the complex socket manufacturing process. Demand for LGA may increase only when socket costs is much lowered in the near future.
Currently, NAND Flash is mostly packaged with TSOP, FBGA, or LGA while memory card mostly use COB package. Cell phone applications mostly use MCP for packaging. When more variety of end products is introduced, WLP and 3D TSV packages will also be adopted more widely. |
