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Politics : President Barack Obama
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To: ChinuSFO who wrote (37975)10/14/2008 12:02:54 PM
From: thames_sider  Read Replies (2) of 149317
 
I suspect that it is "the Bradley effect" in WVA.

Leaving aside whether that effect genuinely exists (there was an article here or Sioux Nation disputing that), I would have thought that unlikely.
It would presumably apply to people who intended to vote McCain, because they would not vote for a black man, but would claim to be voting for Obama out of shame. Implying if Obama was white they would vote for him after all.

Wouldn't anyone voting McCain be reasonably proud of it? He's not so way-out (despite his VP pick), and he's got a solid history even if recent affairs have tarnished him slightly. And I don't feel anyone planning to vote for him would see it that way anyhow.

And I would expect someone sufficiently swayed by issues that they'd vote Obama unlikely to be so affected by prejudice that they would change this purely on the basis of colour. Maybe a tiny, tiny minority but not sufficiently to register on polls.

Lastly, the other values common to anyone biased by colour would seem to me to lead them to vote Republican pretty much regardless, at least since the 1960's... so Obama would not have got their vote as a Democrat in any case. But I don't think the Democrat vote would likely be affected by their candidate's colour.

In fact, from my last point, any "Bradley effect" would IMO be seen the other way: if the Republicans put up a black candidate standing against a white Democrat, then some GOP voters might just vote colour rather than party - and they would justifiably be ashamed to admit this.
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