What we’re going to see, in short, is the Gingrich revolution in reverse and on steroids. There will be a big increase in spending and deficits. In normal times, moderates could have restrained the zeal on the left. In an economic crisis, not a chance. The over-reach is coming. The backlash is next.
I think he is--not for the first time--dead wrong. Obama's economic advisors are people like Buffett, Rubin and Summers. First task will be to get the financial house in order. That will take the entire first term. Without that, no "big programs" are possible. These Republicans are addicted to predicting that deficits and spending will increase wildly under any Democratic administration, despite the fact that the record of the past 30 years clearly shows that they increase far more under Republican administrations than under Democratic ones (of course, they blame Democratic Congressional majorities for the increases--nevermind the first 6 years of the Bush admin; and Republican Congressional majorities for the restraint under Clinton, nevermind that from the time he first announced his intention to increase taxes on the wealthy, he said his goal was to stabilize the deficit and bring down the debt in order to assuage the bond market and get interest rates down, which would be the best possible tonic for the economy).
That said, I don't doubt that he will try to do something on health care. But my prediction--which have been in general far better than Brooks's in the past--is that he will try to do it responsibly.
If you wish, I will wager that the Obama deficits of the last two years of his first first term won't be as large as the Bush deficits of FY08 and FY09. Unless, of course, we are still suffering from a recession two and three years hence. In that case (and no one can rule it out at this point), all bets are off--we will all need every penny we can scrape together (or need wheelbarrows to buy a loaf of bread). |
