CX, fwiw, my buy prices on the shares I still have are:
10/18/'00 @ $9.13/sh
6/'04 @11.53/sh
6/'08 @ $23.02/sh
8/'08 @20.57/sh - 20.23/sh
I believe I'll follow you and try to average down with a gtc for a small purchase about $5/sh. For me, as I liked it at $9 in '00, I ought to like it even more at current price.
On the one hand, construction is going to continue at some point, CX is geographically dispersed, CX is a technology innovator, CX is well-managed (from my reading of media reports), and the stock price surely is beat down.
OTOH, CX is big in Mexico and while home construction can and does proceed slowly (residential construction home-owners buy cement a bag at a time), I am worried that because so much government revenue and spending are dependent on oil, esp. Cantrell, and because Cantrell is in decline - maybe surprisingly steep decline - the Mexican economy will do very badly. Worse than just being appended to the USA economy which is suffering (esp. construction in USA in which a majority (?) of Hispanics have been employed). Mexico is a very big market to CX, so that's the big negative for me (compared to my favorable view in past years). CX also uses derivatives and has a high d/e ratio (although that common in this capital intensive industry). |
