Why the Powell Endorsement (Could) Matter
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By Chris Cillizza | October 17, 2008; 4:09 PM ET |
The news that retired Gen. Colin Powell will appear this Sunday on "Meet the Press" has set off a frenzy of speculation that former Secretary of State could throw his endorsement to Barack Obama.
Powell has made little secret of his admiration for the Illinois senator in the past but has always stopped short of outright endorsing him.
Will that change on Sunday? And, if it does, how much is Powell's endorsement really worth?
Seen through the prism of our handy-dandy endorsement hierarchy, Powell's endorsement of Obama would qualify as the highest powered of all endorsements: a symbolic one.
Here's several reasons why a Powell endorsement could matter:
1. Turnabout is Fair Play. Powell is best known for his most recent job in government -- as the Secretary of State for President George W. Bush. The idea that a high-ranking cabinet official in a Republican administration would come out for the Democrat is simply too juicy a story for the media to ignore. That it would be someone as high profile as Powell would only add to the titillation.
2. The Most Popular Man in America? Powell, unlike almost no other official with ties to the Bush Administration, has retained remarkable popularity ratings. In an August Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, more than three-quarters (76 percent) of voters viewed Powell favorably while just 13 percent saw him in an unfavorable light. A large part of Powell's appeal is his perceived bipartisanship -- a direct result of his decision to repeatedly turn down overtures to run for president in his own right. For a certain (not insubstantial) portion of the electorate, when Powell speaks, they listen. The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll reinforces that fact; more than one in three voters said a Powell endorsement of Obama would make them more likely to vote for the Democrat. (Hat tip to Jon "The Numbers Man" Cohen for the polling data.)
3. Iraq, All Wrong. Powell, thanks to his immense popularity, was the Bush Administration's choice to make the case in front of the United Nations for the invasion of Iraq. Powell has since called that incident a "blot" on his record, and made clear his disappointment with the prosecution of the war. An endorsement of Obama, who built his candidacy on his early opposition to the conflict, would mark a clean break with the Bush Administration on the war and would add significant heft to Obama's argument that he alone possesses the judgment to lead the U.S. in a dangerous world.
4. The Final Straw. With polling -- both in the key battleground states and nationally -- showing that voters trust Obama more than John McCain to handle the current economic morass, one of McCain's last hopes is that the the election turns back somehow to a foreign policy focus. If Powell does endorse Obama, it would shore up the Illinois senator even if that eventuality occurred; it would be hard for McCain to slam Obama's approach on the war if the Democrat had a Powell endorsement sitting in his back pocket. |
