I've always preferred counts that considered everything from 1929-1942 to be three waves within the same bear. Corrections are rarely pretty events to count, either.
It will be interesting to see, in the fullness of time, how the 2000 top should be labeled. I suspect the REAL top was 2007, and depending upon how severe this bear is, the price low will come on the four-year-cycle lows due in either 2010, 2014, or 2018. I used to say 2014, but I'm starting to wonder if 2018 isn't a better target. Japan took thirteen years, assuming its low is in:
The 1929 bear really ran for thirteen years as well.
Ten years from now, with equities completely ignored for a decade, the boomer demographic wave having fully crashed against the economic and financial shoreline, prices bottom with a whimper and a glorious, new baby bull is born...
`BC |
