The Slow Tightening Of The Race
Published by AJStrata at 11:53 am under 2008 Elections, All General Discussions
You Bama folks better stop working & wasting time online and go to manning the phones fulltime till the election. Bama's in trouble - he needs you. 12 hrs a day 7 days a week till Nov 4 isn't too much to ask it? Get off SI and get working. The Messiah needs you, you lazy-*ssed lefties.
But it won't matter. I'm telling you now - Obama will lose.
With two plus weeks to go before voting things might finally be turning John McCain’s way. I have predicted this race would go down to the decisions made by voters on election day, and that seems to be the case. However, I am not overly confident at this moment, just noting the data is turning more positive.
I let myself mathematically convince myself the Dems would not take both houses in 2006. For the data I had I was pretty close, but what I did not have was all the data. And so I was convinced the GOP would ride out the storm in one house (the senate). Well I was wrong.
So I do not plan to repeat that mistake this year. WIth that said let’s look at some data. First off, everyone should be reading DJ Drummond , who knows his math, especially his statistics. He has been posting excellent analyses on the polls and his conclusions align well with mine.
And one of those conclusions is Gallup has proven, beyond any doubt, the polls have no idea what is happening. Gallup’s three model results are an indication of surrender - each provide a different result with 95% confidence and a margin of error of +/- 2%. Yet they don’t fall within their own margin of errors! Therefore we have three models which show, with 95% confidence, no one knows what is happening. What is clear is that Obama’s trend is that of a shrinking lead.
First take a look at the wildly optimistic ‘expanded’ model which has given Obama some healthy leads. Obama’s 10 point lead in this model is down to 4 points. The ‘traditional model’ at one point had a 7% lead for Obama, that is down to 2%. It is interesting that the most optimistic Gallup model for Obama is now tightening - along with most other polls.
RCP has cleared its poll of polls of garbage like the CBS News/New York Times pol showing a laughable 14% Obama lead. In doing so and sticking with the tracking polls Obama’s one time 8.2% national lead is down to 4.9%.
Now, back to be cautious. There have been some interesting tidbits out and about on the early voting results. As we know Obama did really badly in energizing his new voters in Ohio. But there are reports of Obama doing well in early voting:
Voting in some battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, has been under way since mid-September. That coincides with McCain’s slide in the opinion polls. Florida and Colorado began voting this week.
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In North Carolina, which only weeks ago had been seen as a sure bet for the Republicans, Obama had a 34% lead among the 5% of the electorate who took part in early voting, according to exit polls.
The same scenario was unfolding in another state once seen as an unlikely prospect for the Democrats: Indiana. Among the 14% of voters who have already cast their ballots, Obama was leading by 34%, exit polls predicted. In Georgia, seen as a staunchly Republican state, Obama had a 6% advantage among early voters. Some 18% of the electorate had cast their ballots at the time of the survey.
Exit polls, as we know, can be quite dodgy. Just ask President Kerry. On the flip side here are some comments by a person respected by many conservative bloggers (who I do not know at all) supposedly with inside information:
Hah! Of course. Susa is showing a Florida lead for Mac now that they are using the RIGHT turnout model for Florida (GOP+4). Look at the early voters. Mac is getting the early vote in Florida. That’s bad news for Obama because (look at the primaries), Obama relies on the early vote but Mac has an 8 point lead in those that say they’ve already voted! {I am guessing it’s military absentees for the most part}
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PA looks very shakey for Obama at least per the campaign sources I am reading (from both parties).
[ Keep calling Pennsylvanians west of Phillie racist rednecks, Murtha. You can make 'em good and mad if you keep at it. ]
-Polaris
Actually I was able to find a news article confirming the Florida situation:
“We have good people, both staff and volunteers, who have been here before. They’ve been in tough elections, close elections every two years for 10 years,” said Mike DuHaime, McCain’s political director. “(Obama’s) got more money, he’s got more staff, he’s got more offices. We’ve got a better candidate. In terms of the turnout operation, we’ve got better technology and a battle-tested organization.”
…
“Right now the thing that I feel the best about Florida, we have a pretty sizable absentee ballot lead,” DuHaime said. “When you start looking at the data of real people actually voting, I feel good about it.”
Given Obama’s historic money edge, bringing in as much money in September as twice McCain’s entire public financing budget for the general election. Given that edge and the fact the Political Industrial Complex is lining up behind Obama, one has to wonder why he hasn’t sealed the deal. Are Americans going to go to an untested, inexperienced candidate who has less applicable experience than any of the other 3 candidates. It may be the epitome of historic irony for the Democrats to finally learn you cannot simply throw money at a problem!
And another history lesson on polls.As Obama himself noted this week polls may be complete fantasies, as he and the nation learned in NH. Obama was up 8-13% in many polls (see RCP average ) before the primary. Hillary won by 2.5% - that is a huge shift. Anything can happen.
strata-sphere.com
[ It WASN'T a shift in NH. The polls were wrong. They're wrong a lot. ]
Ohio Early Voting Bad Omen For Obama In November - 80% Of His Voters Are AWOL
Published by AJStrata at 8:29 pm under 2008 Elections, All General Discussions
McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!
People have to understand how national campaigns will avoid the look of failure at all costs. In the case of novice Barack Obama this is all the more important since confidence in him is as fragile as a spun sugar figurine. So when Obama’s camp predicted a huge windfall of votes in Ohio’s early registration/voting window they were being VERY conservative in their estimation of what they could produce. Trust me, they low-balled what they thought they could do.
So, when we see the abject failure of the Obama campaign to get any significant numbers out to vote, falling below 20% of their low-ball predictions, one can see the wheels falling off the arrogant O-Bomba Express:
As of Monday evening with polling sites still open, projections were that about 4,000 to 5,000 voters in the state’s four largest counties would have taken advantage of the policy, which survived multiple court challenges.
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Overall, between 20,000 and 25,000 people were expected to have voted early in person in the four counties, beginning Sept. 30.
That is a stunning 80% no-show! Is anyone still buying those ridiculously optimistic polls with 10+% differences in party ID? Is anyone going to be suckered (for the umpteenth time) that the youth vote will come out to save the Dems? Is anyone going to believe all those rock band crowds - like Springsteen in Ohio this week - are really there due to their adulation for Obama? Heck, Springsteen attracted 2-2.5 times as many people to his one Ohio State concert than Obama got to the polls!
Pullleeasse. Obama’s campaign probably cut their internal estimates in half when they produced that 20-25,000 number, and they still fell 80% short. The Obama camp is all hype, and now I understand why he wants to claim ‘underdog’ status today. He is probably ahead in the fantasy polls and really in trouble when it comes to getting polling samples to vote. At least that is the lesson I see from Ohio today.
McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!
strata-sphere.com
Turnout light in Ohio early voting window
By STEPHEN MAJORS – Oct 6, 2008
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — A weeklong period in which Ohioans could register to vote and immediately cast a ballot ended Monday with turnout that didn't quite match the expectations of election officials — or the campaign predictions that preceded it.
As of Monday evening with polling sites still open, projections were that about 4,000 to 5,000 voters in the state's four largest counties would have taken advantage of the policy, which survived multiple court challenges.
Elections officials were surprised by the low turnout.
"With all the hoopla we were anticipating a whole lot more," said Steve Harsman, the elections director in Montgomery County, home to Dayton.
Overall, between 20,000 and 25,000 people were expected to have voted early in person in the four counties, beginning Sept. 30. The four counties include the state's largest urban areas — Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo and Dayton — and the focal points of campaign get-out-the-vote efforts.
About 1,300 people had taken advantage of the opportunity in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and is the state's most populous.
The early voting window was expected to benefit Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, as his campaign and supportive advocacy groups drove members of typically Democratic constituencies — the homeless, college students and poor people — to the polls.
Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, remains a toss-up state. It put President Bush over the top in 2004, giving him a second term.
This year's presidential campaigns interpreted the numbers to their advantage.
"We're pleased that thousands of Ohioans are turning out to cast their ballots early for Barack Obama," said campaign spokesman Isaac Baker.
Republican rival John McCain's campaign said the light numbers exposed a weakness in Obama's voter turnout efforts.
"Despite months of talking up 'Golden Week,' Obama was unable to connect with Ohio voters who question his readiness to lead," said McCain spokesman Paul Lindsay.
The Ohio GOP had sued in federal court to stop the voting window but was unsuccessful. Two Ohio voters with Republican backing sued in the Ohio Supreme Court, but also were defeated.
Republicans argued that the law required voters to have been registered for at least 30 days before getting an absentee ballot. They said the early voting window could lead to widespread voter fraud because officials wouldn't have an opportunity to verify registration information before ballots were cast.
The state Republican Party also had accused Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, of using the law for partisan purposes. But the overlap between the beginning of absentee voting 35 days before Election Day, Nov. 4, and the end of registration 30 days before the election has been in Ohio law since 1981.
ap.google.com |
