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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN)
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To: SI Bob who wrote (9963)10/21/2008 3:28:17 PM
From: Lance Bredvold1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 10345
 
I think there is a good reason for the price to be affected downward. The rate of acquisition going into July was nearing 500 per week (438 but ramping well) as I recall. Certainly a minimum of 2000 net patients were in place at July 29 when the PML announcement showed up. Thus we have 1700 (of which 100 are in trials) net additions over 10 weeks or so in August and Sept. Perhaps the change was 0 in August and 400 per week in September, or perhaps less than 200 per week the whole time. That rate of change is what I regard as significant.

In spite of the reduced rate of change, I am satisfied with the growth and quite encouraged. With a little luck our incremental increases will get up to 400 and 500 again soon and even if we stay around 300, we'll be at breakeven for ELN as a whole in about 2 more quarters. Then if credit markets improve, ELN's ability to replace existing debt will be quite sure. And that is at least 2 years before we actually need to replace the existing debt.

Best, L.
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