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Biotech / Medical : Biomatrix (BXM) Looking Great
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To: Dan Lazare who wrote (139)10/21/1997 7:23:00 PM
From: John McCarthy   of 569
 
Dan,

I understand your point.

But BIOX's results were right on target.

Below is a side-by-side:
Actual 3rd Qtr VERSUS Post #97 or #98 which
is dated Sept. 27th.

(millions)

Sept 27th Post

Actual Est.
3rd 3rd
Qtr. Qtr.
----- ----
Licenses Fees:
Bayer -0- -0-
Wyeth-Ayerst 12.1 12.0
----- ----
Total License Fees 12.1 12.0
Product Net Sales 1.8 2.0
----- ----
Total Revenue 13.9 14.0
----- ----
COGS 0.6 0.7
R&D 1.5 1.5
G&A 2.0 2.0
----- ---
Total Costs 4.1 4.2
----- ---
Operating Earnings 9.8 9.8
----- ---
Other Inc. .2 .2
----- ---
EBT 10.0 10.0
----- ---
Inc. Tax Prov. .3 -0-
----- ---
EAT 9.8 10.0
----- ----
----- ----
E.P.S .85 .89
----- ----

The missing 4 cents is due to the Tax Provision
and more shares outstanding vs. the estimate.

Revenues
------------
The dollar amount of shipments are small.

This will change in the 4th qtr.

My bet: (a) Another $2.0 mil. to parts of the world and
(b) $5.0 mil. to AHP-USA. The $5.0 mil. is not a BIOX
or demand limitation. I'm guessing it is what AHP could
handle coming out of the gate.

Using 4th qtr . revenues of $7.0 mil. works out to
$0.10 for the qtr. and $1.31 for the year.

At a PE of 30 thats $39.00 share.

Next year the real fun begins.

There are some prior posts from me that speculate
about next year.

Several people are concerned about cost.

I see it exactly opposite. At (I'm guessing) a $1,000
a year, people are not going to have any problem spending
for this and thats w/wo any outside health plan.

Regards,

John McCarthy
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