Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That seven-point lead is Obama’s largest in nearly two weeks. This is also the first time since October 11 that the Democratic candidate has reached the 52% level of support, his highest total of the year.
For the past 28 days, Obama’s support has stayed between 50% or above 52% every day. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points (see trends).
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama while 54% say the same about John McCain. Those figures include 41% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 27% who are that enthusiastic about McCain (see trends).
McCain leads by just two percentage points among Investors while trailing badly among those who do not invest. Investors are generally more supportive of Republican candidates.
Tracking Poll results are released every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
New state polling data shows McCain leading in the reliably Republican states of Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Results from Minnesota and Georgia will be released later today.
In key Senate races, Republicans Mitch McConnell (KY) and John Cornyn (TX) are leading in their re-election bids. Democrat Mary Landrieu (LA), once seen as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent of this cycle, is also ahead. Results from other key Senate races will be released today at 3:00 p.m. Eastern. Take a moment to predict whether or not the Democrats will have 60 Senate seats following this election.
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com took a look at all the tracking polls published during the final weeks of this campaign. His overall assessment? “In summation, none of these tracking polls are perfect, although Rasmussen -- with its large sample size and high pollster rating -- would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island.”
Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House. |
