Remember the good old days node? Just 5-6 weeks ago. McCain should have refused to debate...
Hey, I think McCain is going to lose. But I'm not counting him out.
There is no doubt the polls are tightening, substantially.
Gallup's got them at 4 points or 6, depending on the assumptions about turnout. That is not out of reach. From a state by state POV, McCain needs FLA, VA, NC, PA, OH and MO -- all of which have moved toward Obama lately.
However, FLA is again leaning toward McCain.
The Obama margin in VA is down to 2 points.
If you throw out the obvious bogus "Big10" poll (in which Obama's lead was overstated in every state), OH is within a few points.
MO is either McCain by 1 or Obama by 5, depending on who you believe.
VA is either 2 or 10 points Obama, depending on whom you believe.
And NC is 2 or 4 points.
According to Obama's internal polls (presumably better than RCP) PA is down to 2 points.
None of these are insurmountable margins at this point. The media would have us believe they are -- but they will take something like this apparently bogus Big10 poll and run with it -- even though it is an obvious outlier.
Now, that kind of media support for Obama will possibly move votes to him, but McCain's been fighting the media bias from the outset.
At this instant, the race is quite a bit closer than watching CNN would make you think. |
