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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (88974)10/24/2008 12:35:52 AM
From: John Pitera1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
Hi AJ, I'm not in the least surprised to see the Nikkei and it's EWJ etf make new lows for 2008. The JPY has been the relative anchor currency that has helped to counterbalance all the massive volatility the the USD has witnessed against the other global currencies.

Looking at the EWJ (Japanese ETD) on a daily chart going back to 1996 both the normal MACD and on Balance volume caculations are at the lowest level since the ETF was launched. It's been in a free fall along with so many other assets, and asset classes.

basis the Nikkei the 2003 low was 7603..... based on the massive momentum of this decline since we broke 12500 on the Nikkei, tells me we will not only retest the 7603 low, but make a new lower low for the macro cycle that has played out since the high at 39000 and change on Dec 31st 1989.

I feel compelled to issue a "mea culpa" as I was really expecting a better relative performance from Japanese equities over this first decade of the 21st century. We have witnessed some nice cyclical bull markets, but in the final analysis we saw much more firepower from the emerging markets in China, India, Brazil... .... and of course our own turbocharged performance in finance and real estate related issues in the good old USA from 2003 to 2007.

For the elliott wavers in the audience the wild exurberence of these finance, real estate et al.... sectors created this massive "B" wave bubble from 2003 until mid 2007..... It was classic in the creating a mania that dwarfed the mania of B2B, telcom, dotcom and Genome stocks that witnessed a massive super nova collapse in 2000-2001.

John
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