Hello TJ. With gold needing to go up 40% to get to the all time high, and platinum needing to go up 160% to do the same, and silver needing a 100% increase, there's a big gap to fill. And that's just to get to the previous high.
To get to the market clearing Zimbabwe/Argentina price, there is an order of magnitude to go.
It does seem that currency doomsday is postponed. Big Ben has a lot of leeway in deleveraged capital reserve ratios to fill to avoid deflation [which has been large from the peak] so he can keep launching helicopter fleets without hyperinflation kicking in.
People are being cleared out of the market en masse against their will to repay ill-advised debts galore. Buying opportunities are swarming, but so are bear traps. We are only two years into the declines and one year into the serious declines so there should be at least another year or two of declines to go before the overall bottom is in. But that is just for a garden variety Biotelecosmictechdot.com crunch. For a world record never in human or biological history like this, there is potential for a much longer crunch.
But when Big Ben said there will not be deflation and he has the helicopters to back him up, he was serious and meant business. So I remain confident that Dow 16,000 will be here sooner rather than later. We have had a decade at the 8000 level. That's quite a while. "Sooner" in that context would mean 4 years rather than later, which would mean 10.
That does mean no TJ-style dark interregnum and TeoTwawki. I realize humans are prone to Maoistic Manias, WWI, WWII, Russian Revolution, French Revolution, General Genocide [GG] and Contemporaneous Carnage [CC]. But surely we are much better than that. Of course if China was to invade Taiwan and North Korea try on the South or Pakistan try to total India and Iraq have anther go at Iran, with Syria being dealt to by Israel and Germany girding their loins for yet another [this would be the 4th] hegemonistic megalomaniac endeavour, things could get interesting.
At present such GG and CC seem remote. But there are 6 billion of us and that's a crowd and a quorum for any ideas at all.
Mqurice |
