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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Richard J. Byrd who wrote (6760)	10/21/1997 10:01:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Hi Dick, <After a great streak of accurate market predicting, you missed today by a mile. techstocks.com You had predicted "more negativity" for Wednesday. Want to revise that?> Remember the part of "jury-rigged" forecast... well I have altered the gizmos on it a bit... If I monkey around with it too much it says -435 for tomorrow and if I set it to a reasonable figure, I get +27. I like this latter figure better than the former one. IBEXX! What have you started here??? So the probability forecaster using the neural net acttually did better than I did using my rangy Barron's forecaster today... but not by much using my initial settings... Do I want to change my forecast for tomorrow? Well it looks like it is slightly negative... plus or minus 20 or so points. That gives us a range of -30 to plus 10 on the DOW. BWDIK??? The interesting question is "SHOULD I HAVE CHANGED MY TRADING STRATEGY WHEN THE MARKET WAS WAY PAST MY FORECAST???" The answer is ABSOLUTELY NOT... NEVER, NEVER CHANGE YOUR STRATEGY DURING TRADING HOURS. (Remember, part of your trading strategy for getting out of a position can be predefined limits at which you will close out...) Why? Because in the heat of battle you will surely be overcome by your emotional side and once that happens, you lose... been there, done that. Regards, Bill

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