Natural Resource Stocks Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

From: ames	10/25/2008 8:03:29 PM
	Read Replies (2) of 108699

Here's a report of a talk by Buffet's partner Charlie Munger that is radically different in assumptions & forecast from the Austrians & goldbugs. Bottom fishing I could understand. But if he's right - big if, you might think - then we're back at 1998-99 again in US$ vs gold. How in the world does he expect a strong US$ to cope with bal of payments & debt distortions? Is this JP Morgan reassuring the mkts as a public service while the boiler blows up? I's as if Chas is in a parallel universe a few lightyears away. Or perhaps we just need the right glacial timeline. <<A friend was in a dinner where Charlie Munger gave a speech. Here are some of the conclusions of the speech by my friend: - The longest recession ever was 16 months. He thinks best case we entered into a recession in November of 2007 or worst case January 2008. This would put us well into the later half of the cycle, which will be painful but short. - We are setting the base for a 10 - 15 year bull run. The stock market has never performed worse in the last 10 years, yet corporate profit expansion has never been better. - The market will not rally until bond yields come down on the long end. Right now you should be in munis of solid states that are yielding 7% - 8% risk free. - TARP will make money. Historical yields on toilet quality mortgage packages are well above the prices people are contemplating buying them. Really smart vulture guys are buying at the 50% - 60% levels. He and Buffet are also buying at these levels. - We will see a healthy level of deflation before we see inflation. He predicted $50/barrel oil. Demand has been slowing for a year. As long as money velocity turns to favorable, government can pull out the excess liquidity before it becomes inflationary. - The dollar has turned the corner and will rally from here against the Euro. - Governments will drive LIBOR down to force interbank lending. Europe is much worse off than the U.S. in terms of bank health. - Cash on the balance sheets or corporates has never been higher. If they all bought back there stock their P/Es would be trading at a 50% discount to the historical market average. - He and Buffet are buying U.S. equities for their personal accounts. >> <<http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle+articleid_2732543.html

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next