You had cleared it up in your mind Neo, but probabilistic determination with a little sample remains open to speculation and I was not persuaded that we are in the clear, so to speak. Until we actually GET the sunspots, it's like the Greenhouse Effect = something we are supposed to get, maybe, in theory, but until it actually kicks the door down, we can say it doesn't exist. Yes, your garden might have a green elephant in it, and it must be hiding because we can't see it. But another possibility is that there is no green elephant.
There should be about 12 sunspots a month now. Since they come two at a time at times [as the last couple did], that means there should be one every 4 days, on average [since they last a couple of days]. So after a couple of days without one I have to start moaning that the sunspots have fizzled out to beat the next ones coming [when they are blazing away, I can't really moan as the green elephant will be right there, staring me down]. Same for the Greenhouse Effect doomsters = when people are buried in snow and suffering freezing weather, it's not very convincing to tell them there's a Greenhouse Effect and that they must stop burning coal to keep warm and avoid freezing.
Even though no sunspots could be just statistically normal behaviour, it might also mean that the sunspot cycle is at a very low ebb and we could say we have now entered the next glaciation [snow must be all over the place way up north now].
Mqurice |
