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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 259.21-4.0%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (9161)10/21/1997 11:25:00 PM
From: Big Bucks  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Hi Paul V,

You said:
>>Therefore, it appears that for the semi's to become more profitable they must first purchase the equipment from the equipment makers. <<

The question should be," when will they purchase the equipment" and also consider they need to have fab space to put the equipment into a production environment.
The transiition to 300mm and sub 0.25uM geometries will take considerable time to implement for several key reasons.

1st- the entire equipment set and "semi-standards" needs to be agreed upon and implemented. All the necessary support equipment
and production (not beta) manufactured equipment needs to be
fully functional and capable of meeting the manufacturing production
schedule of the chip makers, they won't risk trying to make product
on unproven or unreliable equipment, the expense is just to high
to make a mistake and order equipment that can't meet the mission
critical aspects required..

2nd- Each shrink in device geometries causes a whole new set
of problems that need to be understood and remedied prior to
commiting product to the market. No one wants to sell a product
that may have unknown reliability issues that crop up 6 months
after it is sold, recalls can kill a product/manufacturer.

3rd- All the equipment and new technologies must be tuned to
work in harmony to estabish a viable and smooth production flow.
This means that all the bugs need to be worked out of the system
to insure repeatable and high quality production output, this takes
time to understand the problems and engineer around the obstacles.

4th- The product must start making money, which means that the
market has to be ready to assimilate the new products being
manufactured. If the market isn't there the product could fail or not
be profitable.

There are other roadblocks ahead, these changes in methodolgy
and innovation take time and planning to implement.

Just my opinion,

regards,
BB
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