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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Jeff Mills who wrote (5978)10/21/1997 11:34:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb  Read Replies (2) of 9285
 
Jeff, a little more Citrix math. By comparing with last Q, you can see that the liability for the MSFT sale was written down by 9.75 million, meaning that the real revenues were only 25.2 million and the real earnings were only 3.3 million for on-going business. Based on a price of $77, note the following:

market cap 2.3 billion
PE based on 4 quarters like this quarter PE = 170
PS = 90
price to book ratio 10

Also note that earnings from on-going business actually declined. And until they finish "writing off" the artificial liability for the MSFT sale, they can make the earnings be whatever they want in a quarter. $48.1 million of the $75 million remains to be used for inflating earnings, that can fuel about 3 more quarters growth. But the market (and maybe their auditors) will eventually see through this smoke screen.

Looks like a good short to me!!

Roger
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