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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: SilentZ who wrote (431483)10/31/2008 11:13:14 AM
From: tejek   of 1573853
 
From Georgia's Secretary of State Data...

The Georgia Secretary of State just posted early voting turnout numbers through Thursday voting, and they look awesome.

dailykos.com

Thursday votes: 194,846
Total votes: 1,767,139

AA Thursday votes: 66,871
AA% of Thursday votes: 34.3%

AA total votes: 617,965
AA % of total votes: 35.0%

% of AA active RVs already voted: 42.8%
% of white active RVs already voted: 33.7%
% of total active RVs already voted: 35.3%

The black turnout continues to be staggeringly high in Georgia. By the end of early voting today, nearly half of Georgia's black active RVs will have already voted.

As I wrote yesterday, the enthusiasm gap in Georgia could cut substantially into Bush's 7-point win here four years ago without converting a single Bush voter to Obama.

If the black vote stays at 35% through the election, Obama could win with with the same 24% of the white vote Kerry got:

Race % % Obama Total Obama
Black 35 0.95 33.25
White 60 0.24 14.40
Other 5 0.50 2.50
Total 100 50.15

If Obama holds the early voting pattern and holds the Kerry percentage, he wins. For every point the black percentage goes down, Obama needs about about a 1.5-point bump in his percentage of the white vote.

I think if Obama wins Georgia, it will be with 31%-32% of the total vote coming from black voters and winning 27%-28% of the white voters -- both very doable.
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