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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: JohnM who wrote (92914)	11/1/2008 12:17:26 PM
From: biotech_bull	Read Replies (1) of 541990

That's looks like a 8-10 point average lead, a little lower than it's been. But Nate Silver crunches some numbers and comes up with an 89% chance of Obama winning EVEN if he loses PA Pennsylvania Sanity Check Suppose that Barack Obama were to concede Pennsylvania's electoral votes. Literally, concede them. Throw 'em back, like a Chase Utley home run at a Cubs' game. How often would he still win the election? ...89.0% of the time, according to our most recent run of simulations, along with another 2.4% of outcomes that ended in ties. This is because in the vast majority of our simulations, Obama either: a) was winning at least 291 electoral votes, meaning that he could drop Pennsylvania's 21 and still be over 270, and/or b) was winning at least 270 electoral votes, while already being projected to lose Pennsylvania in the first place. (a) was much, much more common than (b), obviously. -- Nate Silver at 10:02 AM fivethirtyeight.com

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