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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 299.81

+2.7%

Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (41287)	11/1/2008 7:16:50 PM
From: cluka	Read Replies (2) of 95617

Don, It is not so much the earning this qtr, but the guidance, just pitiful. KLAC is looking at revenue at 400MM level, I don't remember when they had such a low guidance last time. KLAC has a huge installed base and just service used to keep them above break even. Another thing is that this downturn hit much harder than they ever expected. Both KLAC and VSEA have abnormally large inventories. Again, KLAC to me was company that always executed better than anyone and I do not remember that they had this sort of inventory issue even back in '98. On both calls, half of the QA time was spent on figuring break-even. Only positive for KLAC was that all their smaller competitors simply have no chance of survival. But this is SCE sector. It services industry that will not be cut in half and will be much larger 5 years from now. Only question I have is this the bottom? When 4th Qtr GDP figures come out will a new round of panic selling set in?

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