I have been reading this and would like to focus on a couple of issues. In particular, the differentiation between file/print servers and application servers. The two areas in which application servers seem to have the highest growth are in RDBMS servers and Internet/Intranet servers.
In the first case (DB's), Novell seemed to have a major lead (maybe 3:1 in new sales) in 1995, based on some Gartner data I saw. However, I really expect that to change this year and next, because so much work on NT is being done by the Big 5 DB vendors (Oracle, Informix, Sybase, Microsoft, IBM). I believe that all 5 are working hard on NT engines, especially ones that take advantage of multi-CPU computers and future clusters. This will allow NT to be a solution into larger situations, and compete with Unix in the small to medium size market (that will be 5 years down the road for medium). What is going on in Novell? How many of these are moving their latest engines to Novell? I think that there will be a real change in late 96/early 97 in terms of these two OS's for sales as DB servers.
Next, consider applications on the environments that need DB capabilities. SAP (the big accounting company) is putting their R/3 on NT. I know that they are working with both Microsoft and Informix (public announcements on these) for this, and possibly with others. This shows that they expect NT to grow into a market that is beyond what Novell seems to be targeted for. I am sure that there are other similar applications for NT. What is there on Novell?
Finally, one of the really big growth areas is the Internet/Intranet. Of course, Microsoft is focussing on NT for its server solution. Netscape is broader, having packages for both Unix and NT. Is there any solution for Novell? Is anyone really using it? What are the potential sales in these categories on the 2 OS's?
I have not really followed Novell very well. However, my perception is that it made a very good starter network for small businesses and departments. What are they doing to really grow beyond that market? I personally perceive that MS has successfully outflanked them in the application server market. |
