Venezuela's olive branch may be too late for some foreign oil companies
By RACHEL JONES
01 November, 2008
Why would anyone invest with a guy who steals from his partners?
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Venezuela is softening its nationalist tone and inviting foreign companies to invest in oil production, but prospective partners may be deterred by an uncertain future and falling oil prices, analysts said Friday.
In need of cash and technology, Venezuela announced it will open up bidding next month for contracts to exploit four areas in its heavy-oil-producing Orinoco oil belt -- expected to pump 400,000 barrels of crude per day by 2011 and double that output by 2015.
Participants will take a minority stake in the projects run by state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, SA, or PDVSA, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Thursday.
The company has been forced to look elsewhere for the capital and technology necessary to develop extensive reserves as Venezuela pours its income into social spending, said RoseAnne Franco, a lead analyst with Washington-based PFC Energy.
"PDVSA of course has cash flow pressures," she said. President Hugo Chavez's government is "drawing a lot from the state oil company."
Venezuela relies on oil for roughly half the government budget and 94 percent of exports, and these pressures only promise to increase if oil prices continue their downward spiral. Prices for light, sweet crude closed the week at $67.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- less than half July's record highs.
Ramirez said Venezuela's prospective partners for the new projects include Chevron Corp. of San Ramon, California, China's National Petroleum Corp. and Colombia's Ecopetrol SA.
But major players in the oil industry may not be willing to sink resources into a country where nationalizations and tax hikes have been the norm, said energy analyst Philip Weiss with Argus Research Co. in New York.
"The problem is that with Chavez, it's something of a wild card," said Weiss -- who follows oil majors including Chevron, Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips, BP PLC and Royal Dutch Shell PLC.
"Of the companies I cover, Chevron's the only one who might have an interest," he said.
Nobody at Chevron's Venezuela office was available to comment Friday afternoon
Ramirez said Venezuela's oil costs only US$4 a barrel to produce -- a "big incentive" for foreign investors -- according to a PDVSA press release. Company officials declined to comment further.
Chavez nationalized four major oil projects in the Orinoco oil belt last year -- prompting U.S.-based companies Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips to leave Venezuela and file for arbitration rather than accept a minority stake. Others, including Chevron, chose to stay on.
But Chavez's government has softened its tone over the last year, assuring foreign oil companies of a more stable environment, Franco said.
Ramirez said the projects should recover at least 20 percent of some 61 billion barrels of oil in the area's deposits. Participating companies will also help build two upgraders that can lighten Venezuela's heavy crude to make it refineable -- each expected to cost some $6 billion and to be completed in 2014, he said.
Falling oil prices may not only deter cash-strapped companies, but could mean Venezuela will have to accept less-than-ideal offers -- despite having the lowest capital risk in the Latin American market, said Mazhar al-Shereidah, an oil economist at Venezuela's Central University in Caracas.
"The reserves are there. The infrastructure is there," he said. "The only major investment is building the upgraders." |
