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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN)
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To: Sidney Street who wrote (10043)11/5/2008 11:58:42 AM
From: Biomaven1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 10345
 
>>1 case in monotherapy WITHOUT prior recent history of strong immunosuppressant use out of approx. 38,000 patients (commercial and trial patients)

I guess I am suspicious of that number. Many of these are patients out "in the wild" and there is likely considerable uncertainty as to their prior treatment history.

We know a lot about the treatment history of the patients that have developed PML, much less about those that did not.

My instinct is that the time to buy ELN (or Biogen) is the first time the next PML case is announced and the stock doesn't appreciably decline for the day. At that point we can say the background incidence of PML has been priced into the stock.

Peter
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