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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: dybdahl who wrote (89746)11/5/2008 2:03:19 PM
From: forceOfHabit   of 116555
 
dybdahl,

Do you try to say that Obama's African grandparents were also born in USA?

Of course not. Neither do I spend a lot of time saying "Maybe one of my grandchildren will become the Czar of Russia, the King of Norway, or the Sultan of Swing."

If I might quote again from your post 89721:

The American dream is now the world's dream. Let's hope that this optimism spreads to the economy.

I think it would be anything but an optimistic scenario for someone living in, say, Canada to wake up to find that their economy (budget surplus not deficit, lower debt to GDP ratio, lower Gini coefficient, no subprime mortgage crisis, strong independent banks and insurance companies, etc., etc., etc) had become the American economy.

Now since this is an investment board and not a kindergarten, I would like to get this discussion back on track by saying that there is an investment thesis I like. The C$ has been very volatile recently against the USD, but I gotta think its the place to be. Canada has a strong resource based commodity economy and I think the recent weakness and volatility is commodity related. But I also think the long term upward pressure on global demand for commodities driven by China, India and other emerging markets is suffering only a brief pause. I would say, buy Canadian miners (precious metals, nickel, also uranium), lumber, agricultural (well potash at least, I don't know of any other sizeable Canadian agricultural plays - feel free to enlighten me), and energy producers and get twice the bang for your buck - strong C$ appreciation and strong commodity price growth.

habit
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