The news is getting scary almost, every day it seems to get worse. The rate cuts in the UK and Europe are astounding. My opinion of course.
Pretty soon the addage about what we really have to worry about is fear itself may come true. Not quite there yet but not that far away either.
I do my own wave work and have some of my own methods. I stated I have a favorite for a low. Maybe, maybe not really. Predictions of such things in the present environment are almost silly.
But speaking of fear and lows, w/r to the charts in #msg-25131806 a postulate I have and use at times is that the vth wave of any major wave must be given back. Yes it must be given back at some point, before the advance can continue, and all those LT trendlines as shown must be broken.
In that message I have shown the '00 top as being a possible 3 ... the evidence is mounting this is correct. The vth wave of that 3 (in my opinion) starts at about 3800. Must that vth wave be given back, in its entirety?
The VAP is very interesting as well. It is my supposition that the VAP is a good representation of areas of support (below) and resistance (above). We can see that if this is correct, the support (below) does not really pick up until the start of that supposed vth wave.
All bets are off here folks as to lows, as to whatever. That is my opinion. I think we are in no mans land. Theories, suppositions, whatever .... the only thing that really works here is trendlines.
This market and the conditions surrounding it just feel and smell ugly. I am big short and have been for a long time, some for the second round tripper plus. But I almost hope what I am suggesting above, that could come true, does not come true. If it does we are in for the roughest ride since The Great Depression. My father has mentioned that era often. I just got through reading a book about a young man's depression era (as a youth) and WWII exploits. For those that went through it, it left a very deep impression, no doubt. My father said to me more than once, 'I hope we never see anything like that again." I hope not either.
TF
|
