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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: Ruffian who wrote (279148)	11/6/2008 12:28:18 PM
From: beach_bum	Read Replies (3) of 793791

Re: "for the third election in a row the exit polls were trash. The raw numbers forecast an 18-point Obama win, news organizations who underwrote the poll arbitrarily dialed it down to a 10-point Obama edge, and the actual margin was six." Thats doesn't sound right. RCP has a final average margin of 7.6% and Obama won by 6. He seem to be cherrypicking Polls here. The exits polls (I was following CNN) predicted a very close race in Virginia, Florida, NC and Missouri. - Turned out to be true. Also predicted easy victory for Obama in PA, Indiana!, Nevada and Colorado. they were right, except for Indiana, where it was very close. Surprising to see this written by Rove, who is generally very good with numbers. I thought the polls reflected the final results a lot better, than the previous 2 presidential election. Good analysis otherwise though. Bum.

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