Some stray thoughts about the election that I finally have time to put together (and a neat grub too!):
1. We can't say Rovian politics are finished, but the model is very broken now. Demonizing the opponent backfired; the smears rang hollow, thanks in part to dogged media factchecking, and few voters outside the base bought the BS this time. Future candidates will hopefully be more focused on vision, geographic strategy and policy messages than wading back into the Rovian cesspool to aim for a 50.x% victory.
2. As a corollary, it will be virtually impossible to run a Rovian campaign against Obama in 2012. Obama made himself acceptable enough for almost 70 million voters to vote yes; he will now have four years as commander in chief, appearing in America's living rooms over and over, whether it's the White House or world summits. You can't run a "dangerous radical" campaign against an incumbent (unless he is dumb enough to have Ayers and Wright for a sleep-over, which is unlikely).
3. The ground organization that won so many red states will be there bigger and stronger in 2012. Equally important, the database of 3.2 million donors and a zillion volunteers will be too. Good luck to anyone who wants to try to counter that among the conservative base.
4. The electoral map is now much bigger than before. It's not just FL and OH; Obama's next opponent has to figure out how to win back a big chunk of the west and the Atlantic coast states to have any kind of path to 270. The Kerry states came in strong for Obama. That plus one big state blocks any opponent.
5. While the factions in the Republican party tear themselves apart, the Dems will be more unified than they were since Clinton's first term, with a chance to implement a governing program with minimal detours on the way.
In short, to beat Obama in 2012, Obama needs to fail as a president, and someone with his charisma and organizational skills has to get to work by 2010 building a machine that can rival what Obama has wrought. I'd love to see a charismatic moderate Republican give it a shot and make it a good race in 2012.
But I won't hold my breath. |
