Scratch Qualcomm's Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB) as a 4G Access Mode Candidate
It's now official ...
While we expect our operating expenses to grow in fiscal 2009, it is at a significantly lower rate than previous years and is primarily due to the carryover of resources added in fiscal year 2008. ... Specifically, we've put in place a cap on new resources for fiscal year 2009. In order to manage to this cap, we've worked across the company to prioritize our investments and move resources among projects. ... A highest profile example is the cancellation of our UMB commercial development and reallocation of those resources into accelerating LTE and LTE-Advanced.
- Paul Jacobs, Qualcomm CEO, November 6, 2008 -
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... although CDG Chairman, Perry LaForge laid the groundwork a few weeks ago:
>> CDG: We'll Work with LTE and WiMAX
Telecoms.com
28 October 2008
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Perry LaForge, chairman and executive director of the CDG, outlines how LTE fits in with the CDMA roadmap.
The 4G strategy of the CDMA Development Group (CDG) is one of cooperation with other industry organisations. It's a dramatic turnaround for the CDG, whose conflicts with lobby groups for competing 2G and 3G mobile technologies were commonplace.
Perry LaForge, chairman and executive director of the CDG, has had to move with the times-or, to be more precise, with the wishes of the CDG's carrier membership. CDG members, which comprise mobile operators using so-called '3GPP2' networks (CDMA 1x and EV-DO), have opted either for LTE or WiMAX as their preferred path towards 4G. There is no meaningful support for UMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband), the 3GPP2 'evolution' path set out by the CDG and the 3GPP2 standards body last year. "The CDG role is based on what our members have asked us to do," says LaForge. "That is to continue helping them grow and build out their 3G systems, as well as to help them on interworking [with LTE and WiMAX networks]."
As 3GPP2 mobile operators start to deploy 4G, whether it is LTE or WiMAX, they will want to ensure backwards compatibility and seamless call handover with their 'legacy' networks and ensure wide area coverage from the word go. By working with the likes of the WiMAX Forum and the GSMA, the CDG hopes to makes this transition as cost-effective as possible for its members.
"We are working closely with the 3GPP2 and have made some good progress with some of the interworking issues associated with LTE," says LaForge. "We're also pushing a little bit harder now-but no harder than we're already doing with LTE-to work more expeditiously with WiMAX groups." LaForge is at pains to stress that the CDG doesn't have any 4G preference. "We want to support operators whether they choose LTE or WiMAX," he says.
Yet he does question the idea that the move from 3G to 4G could be described as an 'evolution', which might suggest a veiled criticism of the LTE moniker. "With 4G you're using new spectrum and you're doing something else in it," says LaForge. From the perspective of interworking with 3GPP2 networks, LaForge would not be drawn on whether one implementation (LTE or WiMAX) is more difficult than another "WiMAX will have some challenges and LTE will have some challenges," says LaForge, "but it will always take a lot longer to implement these things than most people think." As well as 4G interworking, LaForge is keen to bring down the cost of 4G handsets in much the same way the CDG has been successful in bringing down the cost of CDMA handsets. He points out there are over 90 devices on CDMA-based 3G networks that retail below $50, which is largely down to the work done by the CDG. "The operators like it that we push hard," he says. "They like the aggressiveness and the speed with which we get things done."
If LaForge is disappointed about how the 4G order is shaping up, he certainly doesn't show it. In September 2007, the CDG and the 3GPP2 announced the publication of the air interface specification for UMB, a 4G system developed by Qualcomm, but there was little interest among CDMA operators to take it further. LaForge says the cool reception UMB received was down to the fact that the CDG membership could see a growing commitment among mobile operators from the 3GPP camp (GSM, EDGE, WCDMA, HSPA) to LTE. "We came up with ideas and approaches for OFDM-based systems and [3GPP2] operators said their approaches were similar but there was momentum for other approaches; the feeling was 'why do something different?' It doesn't disadvantage CDMA operators because 4G is going to be different from 3G no matter what. So if you've got a chance to harmonise that approach, the [CDMA] operators just felt they should go ahead and do it," says LaForge.
LTE momentum, in terms of announcements from tier one mobile operators, has been building rapidly over the last 12 months. Verizon, a flagship CDMA operator, nailed its 4G colours to the LTE mast last year, along with fellow US wireless heavyweight, AT&T. During the Mobile World Congress (MWC) event held in Barcelona (February 2008), China Mobile, Verizon and Vodafone also announced they would be coordinating their LTE trials. And NTT DoCoMo, Japan's largest mobile operator in terms of subscribers, reinforced its 3GPP commitment by declaring at MWC it had selected Ericsson for its LTE base station development project. In April 2008, Japan's KDDI, another major CDMA operator, announced it would be embracing LTE.
There are a number of reasons why many cellular operators will support LTE. For a start, Ericsson, as the world's largest mobile infrastructure supplier and with no interest in either WiMAX or UMB, will forcibly put the LTE case to its numerous MNO customers around the world. (As of March 2008, Ericsson had supplied 90 out of the 185 launched HSPA networks worldwide.)
LTE can also be deployed in both new and existing FDD spectrum, and it is FDD spectrum that most cellular operators have got. By contrast, the strength of WiMAX lies in TDD, although the WiMAX Forum is currently developing an FDD profile.
And in June 2008, the Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN) Alliance, whose members include the world's biggest mobile operators, announced it had selected LTE/ SAE as its preferred choice for nextgeneration mobile broadband technology.
After nearly a year evaluating UMB, Mobile WiMAX and LTE, only the latter was deemed to have measured up to the alliance's selection criteria. (Shortly after this announcement, the CDG declared its strategy of working with LTE and WiMAX industry groups to ensure network interworking with its operator membership.)
Of course, there has also been some WiMAX commitment among mobile operators, not least from EV-DO player Sprint Nextel-the third largest mobile operator in the US-via Xohm, its mobile WiMAX business unit. And having two 4G options, with each receiving substantial industry backing, is something that LaForge welcomes. "There has been a call in some industry circles for [all mobile operators] to go to LTE, but I'm from a different camp," he says. "I think competition between LTE and WiMAX is a very good thing, and will help spur 4G deployment."
LaForge claims that one of the main reasons HSDPA has been developed and pushed hard is largely down to the success of EV-DO. "It created the competitive dynamics for service innovation," he says.
Those 'competitive dynamics' for 4G are likely to be at their most intense in the US, says LaForge. The prospect of a nationwide mobile WiMAX network rollout by the 'new' Clearwire joint venture (which includes Sprint's Xohm business unit) should ensure a timely LTE response from Verizon and AT&T. And with the mighty Verizon and AT&T having to put pressure on LTE equipment suppliers as a consequence, LaForge sees this as a positive for the CDG's carrier membership. "This works out very well for us because many of our operators will be the first to market with LTE," he says.
In keeping with his 4G neutrality stance, LaForge doesn't envisage a significant OFDM surge by a large number of mobile operators, whether they are waving LTE or WiMAX flags, until at least 2014. "The operators who will be implementing 4G first will be those who have been very successful with their 3G systems," he says. "Companies like Verizon and KDDI." He also puts Sprint in that category, which, despite difficulties in holding on to subscribers, has managed to increase data ARPU. And among those operators who have been successful with 3G data, it will be those who have the spectrum to deploy OFDM-based technologies that will necessarily be the first 4G movers. "To say you are committed to LTE is very different from actually implementing it in a timely way," adds LaForge. "I'm not meaning to disparage the support LTE has got, I'm just being pragmatic."
LaForge reckons Verizon will use its newly-acquired 700MHz assets for LTE and keep its existing spectrum for 3G. He disagrees with the assertion often put forward by WiMAX supporters that due to a lack of spectrum availability in the lower frequencies (sub-1GHz), those bands will not be suitable for mobile broadband, even though there will be some cost advantages in achieving wider OFDM coverage due to fewer base stations required through using the better signal propagation characteristics of lower frequencies. "You could also say that the signal propagation characteristics at 2.5GHz and 3GHz [standardised WiMAX frequency bands] are also not great for broadband usage," he says. "No, I think 700MHz is appropriate. I don't see it as being limited at all."
As for new applications that can emerge on the back of 4G, LaForge doesn't see those as being clearly defined yet. The initial focus of 4G, he says, will be offering more of the same, such as broadband to laptops. "One area that I think is really interesting is the emergence of low-cost laptops and MIDs [mobile internet devices]. I can see that as a natural focus area, combined with an increased push to the enterprise segment. It could be a competitive edge for 4G operators, for example, to offer higher speeds than HSDPA to companies."
While LaForge sees the early 4G movement coming in the 2010-11 timeframe, the majority of mobile operators will be holding back. "A lot of mobile operators have had limited success with W-CDMA, but I think HSDPA is going to deliver on the promise of 3G," says LaForge. "And where there is no spectrum available and no 4G competitive pressures, many mobile operators are not going to worry about 4G for a while. It's not a question of there being little interest in 4G but rather it's the practicalities of the market." ###
- Eric - |
